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#1
11-02-2009, 03:10 PM
 jesusislord Member CAS Join Date: Aug 2006 Studying for none Posts: 1,259
guessing techniques

So, to kill a lil time b4 we are PAKing tonight, i figured i bring up how i guess on SOA tests...

im sure i am not the only one who does it this way, but i figured i share.

so i answer as many questions as i can and i talley up all the answer that i am confident in. on this exam i assume that there is a even spread between answers, so about 5 each, with one letter only having 4. so at the end, if i dont have that many A's, then i would guess all A's for the remaining questions. i do this only if it is a pure guess. obviously, some answers can be narrowed down by logic, so these dont really apply, unless one of the remaining answers is a letter i am short on.
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#2
11-02-2009, 03:16 PM
 NicoleLoyola Member CAS AAA Join Date: May 2006 Location: Tampa Studying for 4/C College: FSU-Masters Postgraduate Favorite beer: Abita Amber Posts: 247

I used the guess all the same letter technique
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#3
11-02-2009, 03:33 PM
 ActuarialBAMF Member SOA Join Date: Aug 2009 Studying for FAP Modules College: University of Connecticut Favorite beer: All the beer Posts: 499

I generate a U~[0,1] number in my head and transform that to a standard normal variable and then use sigma = sqrt(question number) and mu=(question number-.25*(number of questions i'm happy with)+.365*(number of beers I will have after the exam) and I take the first 2 decimal places assign it a letter;

0-.2 : A
.2-.4: B
.4-.6: C
.6-.8: D
.8-1: E

But usually I just go B for the win!
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#4
11-02-2009, 03:35 PM
 NicoleLoyola Member CAS AAA Join Date: May 2006 Location: Tampa Studying for 4/C College: FSU-Masters Postgraduate Favorite beer: Abita Amber Posts: 247

LOL
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#5
11-02-2009, 03:42 PM
 jesusislord Member CAS Join Date: Aug 2006 Studying for none Posts: 1,259

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ActuarialBAMF I generate a U~[0,1] number in my head and transform that to a standard normal variable and then use sigma = sqrt(question number) and mu=(question number-.25*(number of questions i'm happy with)+.365*(number of beers I will have after the exam) and I take the first 2 decimal places assign it a letter; 0-.2 : A .2-.4: B .4-.6: C .6-.8: D .8-1: E But usually I just go B for the win!
you forgot to bring the payoff back to time-0
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#6
11-02-2009, 04:12 PM
 Hydraskull Member Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Svalbard Studying for life Favorite beer: Longtrail Double Bag Posts: 5,532

All "C", baby!
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#7
11-02-2009, 04:49 PM
 Yaelly24 Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 73

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jesusislord So, to kill a lil time b4 we are PAKing tonight, i figured i bring up how i guess on SOA tests... im sure i am not the only one who does it this way, but i figured i share. so i answer as many questions as i can and i talley up all the answer that i am confident in. on this exam i assume that there is a even spread between answers, so about 5 each, with one letter only having 4. so at the end, if i dont have that many A's, then i would guess all A's for the remaining questions. i do this only if it is a pure guess. obviously, some answers can be narrowed down by logic, so these dont really apply, unless one of the remaining answers is a letter i am short on.
I did the exact same thing. I hope that it turns out to be 5 right for that letter or more because then I probably got a couple correct on my guesses
#8
11-02-2009, 04:59 PM
 diputz42 Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Studying for ever Posts: 245

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jesusislord So, to kill a lil time b4 we are PAKing tonight, i figured i bring up how i guess on SOA tests... im sure i am not the only one who does it this way, but i figured i share. so i answer as many questions as i can and i talley up all the answer that i am confident in. on this exam i assume that there is a even spread between answers, so about 5 each, with one letter only having 4. so at the end, if i dont have that many A's, then i would guess all A's for the remaining questions. i do this only if it is a pure guess. obviously, some answers can be narrowed down by logic, so these dont really apply, unless one of the remaining answers is a letter i am short on.
i did the same thing on mfe s09 and mfe f09 today too. it worked out pretty well for me in s09 where i went down the A column for all the ones i didnt know and ended up getting 3 correct like that. edit: i still ended up getting a 5 in s09.

dunno how its gonna work for me this time though after looking at the PAK so far. i ended up going down the A column again today (7 in total) and there arent very many A's that i see on PAK...

Last edited by diputz42; 11-02-2009 at 05:15 PM..
#9
11-02-2009, 05:05 PM
 Yaelly24 Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 73

Based on the pak it seems like I got 2 of my 7 guesses, correct. Pretty good. Hope that it sticks.
#10
11-02-2009, 05:07 PM
 diputz42 Member Join Date: Mar 2009 Studying for ever Posts: 245

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Yaelly24 Based on the pak it seems like I got 2 of my 7 guesses, correct. Pretty good. Hope that it sticks.
nice! im also 2 for 7. im hoping that if it does stick, its enough

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