guessing techniques

[jesusislord]

So, to kill a lil time b4 we are PAKing tonight, i figured i bring up how i guess on SOA tests...

im sure i am not the only one who does it this way, but i figured i share.

so i answer as many questions as i can and i talley up all the answer that i am confident in. on this exam i assume that there is a even spread between answers, so about 5 each, with one letter only having 4. so at the end, if i dont have that many A's, then i would guess all A's for the remaining questions. i do this only if it is a pure guess. obviously, some answers can be narrowed down by logic, so these dont really apply, unless one of the remaining answers is a letter i am short on.

[NicoleLoyola]

I used the guess all the same letter technique

[ActuarialBAMF]

I generate a U~[0,1] number in my head and transform that to a standard normal variable and then use sigma = sqrt(question number) and mu=(question number-.25*(number of questions i'm happy with)+.365*(number of beers I will have after the exam) and I take the first 2 decimal places assign it a letter;

0-.2 : A
.2-.4: B
.4-.6: C
.6-.8: D
.8-1: E

But usually I just go B for the win!

[NicoleLoyola]

LOL

[jesusislord]

Originally Posted by ActuarialBAMF

I generate a U~[0,1] number in my head and transform that to a standard normal variable and then use sigma = sqrt(question number) and mu=(question number-.25*(number of questions i'm happy with)+.365*(number of beers I will have after the exam) and I take the first 2 decimal places assign it a letter;

0-.2 : A
.2-.4: B
.4-.6: C
.6-.8: D
.8-1: E

But usually I just go B for the win!

you forgot to bring the payoff back to time-0

[Hydraskull]

All "C", baby!

[Yaelly24]

Originally Posted by jesusislord

So, to kill a lil time b4 we are PAKing tonight, i figured i bring up how i guess on SOA tests...

im sure i am not the only one who does it this way, but i figured i share.

so i answer as many questions as i can and i talley up all the answer that i am confident in. on this exam i assume that there is a even spread between answers, so about 5 each, with one letter only having 4. so at the end, if i dont have that many A's, then i would guess all A's for the remaining questions. i do this only if it is a pure guess. obviously, some answers can be narrowed down by logic, so these dont really apply, unless one of the remaining answers is a letter i am short on.

I did the exact same thing. I hope that it turns out to be 5 right for that letter or more because then I probably got a couple correct on my guesses

[diputz42]

Originally Posted by jesusislord

So, to kill a lil time b4 we are PAKing tonight, i figured i bring up how i guess on SOA tests...

im sure i am not the only one who does it this way, but i figured i share.

so i answer as many questions as i can and i talley up all the answer that i am confident in. on this exam i assume that there is a even spread between answers, so about 5 each, with one letter only having 4. so at the end, if i dont have that many A's, then i would guess all A's for the remaining questions. i do this only if it is a pure guess. obviously, some answers can be narrowed down by logic, so these dont really apply, unless one of the remaining answers is a letter i am short on.

i did the same thing on mfe s09 and mfe f09 today too. it worked out pretty well for me in s09 where i went down the A column for all the ones i didnt know and ended up getting 3 correct like that. edit: i still ended up getting a 5 in s09.

dunno how its gonna work for me this time though after looking at the PAK so far. i ended up going down the A column again today (7 in total) and there arent very many A's that i see on PAK...

[Yaelly24]

Based on the pak it seems like I got 2 of my 7 guesses, correct. Pretty good. Hope that it sticks.

[diputz42]

Originally Posted by Yaelly24

Based on the pak it seems like I got 2 of my 7 guesses, correct. Pretty good. Hope that it sticks.

nice! im also 2 for 7. im hoping that if it does stick, its enough