Projected and Actual Earnings Compared to Model

[kpamswift]

I completed the spreadsheets 9 and 10 according to the instructions in the yellow boxes, but for both sheets I'm seeing a 1st year profit of about -$1M (specifically -$0.8M for spdst 9 and -$1M for spdst 10).

Comparing this to what Asherton told us that their "projected vs. actual" earnings in 2001 were (on the first page of the pdf), I am a bit confused. The model is showing a negative first year profit, yet he claimed that they had a profit of almost half a million. This does not seem right to me.

Did anyone else compare these numbers...what did you think?

[horsey]

You're not going to tie out. Those earnings are in aggregate and as the total # of policies increase each year so does the initial strain from the commissions and the UW costs. We only have 1 year of sales to calculate and no previous years to offset the loss.

I wish my question had a simple fix like yours. I'm rocking a -25% profit over premium ratio on my end.

I can't find a single mistake in my model but it must be there.