Public plans in trouble: part 2

[campbell]

Just trying to get some post-election results together, and I come across this stuff:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A35WG20101104

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/eu...rance.strikes/

French still protesting pension reform, but in smaller numbers

I'm too weary to quote more than the headline.

But seriously France - have you not finished with this yet? How many half-assed protests do I have to read about? The reform bills evidently have already passed, though under some sort of review before being signed by Sarkozy. I don't see them getting the socialists back into power to reclaim their birthright of retirement at age 60 (a birthright for those born after 1982) anytime soon. Take a lesson from the American Tea Party and keep your ammunition dry. Also, smoke more cigarettes.

Yes this should go in my retirement age thread, but I decided to post a bunch of Social Security stories in there, so I decided to put this here.

That makes sense, right?

[DixieFlyer]

Originally Posted by campbell

But seriously France - have you not finished with this yet? ...That makes sense, right?

not really...France and the rest of the EU have the same problem as the US: there is not enough economic surplus available to bail out the financial sector on it's bad loans while also paying pensions and social security to the people...the EU is unable to counterfeit the euro via QE, so they have to implement so-called "austerity measures"...the people are rioting and protesting -- rightfully so I may add -- because their pensions are being cut to bail out the weak, incompetent, and corrupt banks...basically the serfs are resisting a return to the feudal era...here in the US, social security is intact, at least for now, because QE is being used to bail out the financial oligarchy...of course the ignorant, non-thinking, brain-dead masses don't realize that QE-induced inflation will eat away at their entitlements...but someday they will realize it, and you'll see the same type of protests here that are occuring in Europe

[campbell]

DixieFlyer: I hope I never see protests in the U.S. that the birthright of retiring at age 60 has been oh, so roughly taken away and pushed up to the grand age of 62.

You might have noticed some protests in the U.S. the past couple years over bailouts and other such shenanigans. But because those protests didn't involve giant puppets, breaking windows, and setting cars on fire, some people thought that they weren't protests at all. Some of those people just lost elections.

I'm not expecting much in the way of protests/strikes on the part of public sector workers getting thrown into the thinner benefits arena along with the private sector. Because there will be precious little solidarity with them.

[campbell]

By the way, DixieFlyer, there's some very stark demographic reality all countries are dealing with.

Too few kids, and people living too long unproductively -- it's fun to blame the big, bad banks and their government enablers, but when the situation is that people who live into their 90s stop working when they're 60... nope, this reality was going to hit sooner or later. The global financial crisis just made it happen sooner.

[campbell]

As per John Bury's thread, he has a new blog entry --
http://burypensions.wordpress.com/20...tate-pensions/

Similar to Rauh and Novy-Marx, attempting to calculate a drop dead date for various public pensions. His calculations are not as dire as those from the economists, but the results are still pretty bad. Yes, these are rough approximations.

His spreadsheet can be found here:
http://www.s344359691.initial-websit...on-valuations/

Okay, there was an election. What were some of the results?

My own, highly political, review of three gubernatorial results

California ballot measures:
http://calpensions.com/2010/11/04/pe...san-francisco/

Voters approved seven ballot measures Tuesday aimed at curbing or reducing local public pension costs. Only the rejection of a measure in labor-friendly San Francisco averted a clean sweep.
....
In what may be a first, Bakersfield voters bypassed collective bargaining and approved a lower pension formula for new city hires. Vice Mayor Zack Scrivner led the drive for Measure D after several years of impasse with police and firefighter unions.

A Menlo Park initiative reinforces a lower formula for new hires imposed by the city council, preventing future changes without voter approval. Citizens gathered signatures to place Measure L on the ballot, which does not apply to police.

Measures that authorize elected officials to give new employees lower pensions, without specifying a formula, were among dual pension measures approved by voters in San Jose and Riverside County.
.....
In Riverside County, where all five supervisors were said to support a plan to lower pensions for new hires, deputy sheriffs placed Measure L on the ballot, which requires a vote of the people to lower retirement benefits for safety workers.

The supervisors responded with a counter proposal, Measure M, which allows the supervisors to lower retirement benefits, while requiring a vote of the people to increase benefits.

Both measures were approved by voters. But the measure backed by the supervisors got more votes, so it will be the one that takes effect, the Riverside Press-Enterprise reported.

Dual pension measures placed on the ballot by the Redding city council, non-binding advisories, also were approved by wide margins.

Measure A calls for employees to pay their share of the annual contribution to CalPERS. As is the case in a number of cities, Redding currently pays the employee share, 9 percent of pay for police and firefighters and 7 percent of pay for other workers.

Measure B calls for tying Redding retiree health care to the number of years the employee works for the city, beginning with five years to become eligible for retiree health care.

Voters in Pacific Grove approved Measure R, limiting city contributions to CalPERS to 10 percent of pay. A legal challenge is expected. City officials have talked about leaving CalPERS, but paying off pension debt would be costly.

Carlsbad voters approved Proposition G, requiring a public vote to increase pension benefits. Similar measures have been approved in recent years in San Diego and Orange County, modeled after a century-old law in San Francisco.

Voters in San Francisco rejected Proposition B, an increase in worker pension contributions from 1 to 9 percent of pay, depending on the bargaining unit. Employees would have paid 50 percent of dependent health care costs, up from 25 percent.

The comments on that post... well, you'll just have to see for yourself. Some are unhappy with the peasants' revolt. Just read the first 2 comments.

Another story on the same:
http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stori...nclick_check=1

Here's a comprehensive list:

PUBLIC EMPLOYEE MEASURES
Defeats for public employees:
San Diego Proposition D: Half-cent sales tax tied to promises of pension reforms
San Jose Measures W: Allows city to offer future workers reduced retirement benefits
Bakersfield Measure D: Rolls back public safety retirement benefits for new hires
Carlsbad Measure G: Limits increases in public safety retirement benefits
Redding Measure A: Calls for phasing in employee CalPERS contributions
Redding Measure B: Calls for 5-year vesting for retiree health care
Menlo Park Measure L: Limits retirement for new hires, voter consent to raise
Pacific Grove Measure R: Limits city contributions to employee retirement
Riverside Measures L: Voter approval to change county public safety retirement
Riverside Measure M: Voter approval to raise county public safety retirement
San Jose Measure V: Limits arbitration awards to police and firefighters
Palo Alto Measure R: Firefighter union measure to prevent staffing cuts

Victory for public employees:
San Francisco Proposition B: Increases employee contribution toward health, pension

More commentary from Steven Greenhut:
http://www.calwatchdog.com/2010/11/0...n-ca-pensions/

Pension-related comment cause electoral downfall?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lano...ley-in-la.html

Three times, Los Angeles County residents have elected Steve Cooley as district attorney -- twice by significant margins -- but on Tuesday, local voters rejected his bid for state attorney general.
....
Harris, his Democratic challenger, had blanketed the airwaves with a commercial that used a clip from a recent debate. Times reporter Jack Leonard asked Cooley if he planned to "double dip" by taking his pension from his tenure as district attorney -– and his $150,000 annual salary as attorney general. Cooley's quick response: "Yes, I do. I earned it. I definitely earned whatever pension rights I have and I will certainly rely upon that to supplement the very low, incredibly low, salary that's paid to the state attorney general."

Over that answer, Harris' campaign displayed the text: "$150,000 a year isn't enough?"

[Wigmeister General]

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pitt.../s_702733.html

Pittsburgh

[Bob Mitchell]

In CA, Steve Cooley has a 37,000 vote lead as of today. We are still waiting for the 20 bags of ballots from Tijuana.

[limabeanactuary]

Originally Posted by Wigmeister General

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pitt.../s_702733.html

Pittsburgh

Dammit, you took one of my links! I was typing up a new post on the train....

[DixieFlyer]

Originally Posted by campbell

it's fun to blame the big, bad banks and their government enablers, but when the situation is that people who live into their 90s stop working when they're 60... nope, this reality was going to hit sooner or later. The global financial crisis just made it happen sooner.

certainly that's what the banking cartel would like people to believe, i.e., let's blame the financial crisis on the demographics of an aging population, not on exponentially soaring debt, toxic loans, and massive financial fraud...instead of paying the pensions that have been promised, government funding is now needed to compensate the financial sector for bad loans that are sinking into negative equity...somebody must take the loss on the bankers bad loans, and the banking cartel wants the middle class and pensioners to take the loss in order to "save the financial system"...economic central planning has been given to the "independent" central banks, who in turn act as lobbyists for central banks who are selling one product: debt...and there are two choices: 1) pensions can be written down to the ability to pay, which means to pay without taxing real estate, banks, finance, or the top tax brackets, or 2) debts are written down to the ability to pay, which wipes out bank equity and would result in a haircut to bank bondholders -- and heaven forbid that should happen...so the economy gets thrown under the bus and the serfs continue to be debt slaves

[campbell]

Originally Posted by DixieFlyer

certainly that's what the banking cartel would like people to believe, i.e., let's blame the financial crisis on the demographics of an aging population, not on exponentially soaring debt, toxic loans, and massive financial fraud...instead of paying the pensions that have been promised, government funding is now needed to compensate the financial sector for bad loans that are sinking into negative equity...somebody must take the loss on the bankers bad loans, and the banking cartel wants the middle class and pensioners to take the loss in order to "save the financial system"...economic central planning has been given to the "independent" central banks, who in turn act as lobbyists for central banks who are selling one product: debt...and there are two choices: 1) pensions can be written down to the ability to pay, which means to pay without taxing real estate, banks, finance, or the top tax brackets, or 2) debts are written down to the ability to pay, which wipes out bank equity and would result in a haircut to bank bondholders -- and heaven forbid that should happen...so the economy gets thrown under the bus and the serfs continue to be debt slaves

ok, tell you what. Have I got a thread for you:
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=204981

or you can comment here:
http://powip.com/2010/11/public-pens...in-california/

http://powip.com/2010/11/my-condolences-govs-to-be/

Be sure to mention George Soros for extra points.