May 2010 discussion

[spencerhs5]

Originally Posted by jesusislord

yea i just created a matrix with 0s, 1s and 2s in the rows and columns. then filled in the approp numbers. i got like 7.11111 for the chi square stat. then if you look it up on the table it had 4 dof. so it was less than the 95% critical value. so i choose E.

damn thats what i did and second guessed myself on... i thinmk my stat was 6.8 something though, but either way it was E

[jesusislord]

Originally Posted by spencerhs5

was the 10 pay whole life something special for h pay? i just did u/(u+d)=(1-e^(-nd))/d)*X and solved for X where d is delta not discount

that question was str8 forward premium calculation. it was a 10 pay whole life continious insurance. so solve for whole life and a 10 yr temporary continious annuity. divide and there you go.

[spencerhs5]

Originally Posted by jesusislord

did any1 try that stupid unbiased estimator question. i kept looking at it over and over. never did come up with a conclusion or a guess.

option two was the only one that summed to 1 which would be 1 theta -theta =0 so unbiasted.

[jesusislord]

did any1 get a ton of C's?

[jesusislord]

Originally Posted by spencerhs5

option two was the only one that summed to 1 which would be 1 theta -theta =0 so unbiasted.

yea i summed them all up but that was about as far as i got. o well.

[spencerhs5]

Originally Posted by jesusislord

did any1 get a ton of C's?

First 3 were C, many C's A's and E's only 1 or two b's and d's it seemed like

[aorl]

Originally Posted by jesusislord

did any1 try that stupid unbiased estimator question. i kept looking at it over and over. never did come up with a conclusion or a guess.

Yeah at first I did a WTF and skipped it, but then I realized that it just wanted E(theta hat) = theta, and since E(X) = theta,

E(theta hat) = E(sum(a_i * x_i))
= sum(a_i * theta) <=because E[x_i] = theta
so then the a_i's just have to sum to 1 to get E[theta hat] = theta

right?

[(/iropracy]

Originally Posted by spencerhs5

option two was the only one that summed to 1 which would be 1 theta -theta =0 so unbiasted.

Mathematically sound I thought... I agree.

[(/iropracy]

Many C's

[aorl]

I now realize I got the chi-sq matrix question wrong. I picked A.

Also felt like I got a ton of C's, but I only got 8 in reality. Which is well above expected C's, but it felt like more than 8.