Actuarial Outpost October 2011 Exam C4 Progress Thread
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#841
08-24-2011, 08:59 PM
 alexcrewe Member SOA AAA Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: The not-quite-Po' Studying for ... Hmm ... What's left? College: CSULB alumni Favorite beer: Caffrey's Posts: 418

Quote:
 Originally Posted by actuary44 For me, when I see "rarely tested," I skim through the material, and if it makes sense to me, I'll go through the trouble to learn it, but if I start going "WTF?" then I pretty much just skip it.
FWIW, this is what I did in June, and it worked out really well.
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#842
08-25-2011, 12:34 AM
 Justin.M Guest Posts: n/a

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dragoncub Justin, when you went through the flash cards did you memorize all of the cards? even the 1 star cards? And how are you doing on the SOA problems? are you using a formula sheet? Any idea on the percentage correct?
I've memorized probably 300+ of the 344 flashcards (I skipped all the one stars, since they have never been needed on any previous exams). I am doing OK on the SOA 289, but nothing to brag about. I chose to do the SOA set first, because I'm treating it as a review/refresher of concepts and getting better at pulling all the material together. I think it was a wise decision to memorize all the flashcards before working problems. I don't keep track of percentages; it's a little too early in the ballgame, and would probably cause discouragement.
#843
08-25-2011, 10:03 AM
 Scars Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2009 Studying for CAS Exam 5 Posts: 3,883

Finished lesson 47.

Starting lesson 48.
Which is the second biggest section, measured by number of problems...53 of the suckers... 51 end of lesson, 2 quizzes.

#844
08-25-2011, 10:23 AM
 IKnewIt Member CAS Join Date: Jun 2011 Studying for FCAS Posts: 1,513

For some reason, I have a complete mental block on determining how to do continuity corrections. I always know when one is needed, but I never know whether to add 0.5 or subtract it (I know that sometimes it's not 0.5, but that's the most common). Any insight would be greatly appreciated. So far, I've just been adding every time, and that seems to be working in 90%+ of cases.
#845
08-25-2011, 10:40 AM
 Scars Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2009 Studying for CAS Exam 5 Posts: 3,883

Quote:
 Originally Posted by IKnewIt For some reason, I have a complete mental block on determining how to do continuity corrections. I always know when one is needed, but I never know whether to add 0.5 or subtract it (I know that sometimes it's not 0.5, but that's the most common). Any insight would be greatly appreciated. So far, I've just been adding every time, and that seems to be working in 90%+ of cases.
If you're trying to correct Pr (X > 50) then you'll want to look at Pr(X > 50.5)
If you're trying to correct Pr (X < 50) then you'll want to look at Pr(X < 49.5)

When I'm looking for greater than 50:
I want to be a little more than 50, because I can't be at 50.

When I'm looking for less than 50:
I want to be a little less than 50, because I can't be at 50.
#846
08-25-2011, 10:59 AM
 IKnewIt Member CAS Join Date: Jun 2011 Studying for FCAS Posts: 1,513

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Scars If you're trying to correct Pr (X > 50) then you'll want to look at Pr(X > 50.5) If you're trying to correct Pr (X < 50) then you'll want to look at Pr(X < 49.5) When I'm looking for greater than 50: I want to be a little more than 50, because I can't be at 50. When I'm looking for less than 50: I want to be a little less than 50, because I can't be at 50.
Thanks!
#847
08-25-2011, 04:08 PM
 Llanowan Member SOA Join Date: Aug 2010 Studying for CFA Level III College: Princeton Alumnus Favorite beer: Westvleteren 12 Posts: 467

blegh. through C and most of D.1 on TIA. I'm doing basically no problems except those in the lectures, though... Also looks like work is gonna be rough for the next month or so. Gonna be a rough october for me! Guess I'll try and sign up for the 27th...
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#848
08-25-2011, 04:12 PM
 Scars Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2009 Studying for CAS Exam 5 Posts: 3,883

Getting my ass kicked on Buhlmann credibility. Printed of the Mahler-Dean free study note hoping to get a little clarity.

6 out of the first 20 right.
This doesn't look promising.

I always have a weak area on a major topic. This might be it.
#849
08-25-2011, 06:23 PM
 yashi911 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 College: post graduate Posts: 1,514

Starting again on the first of Sept....I hate studying...
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#850
08-25-2011, 07:48 PM
 dballs33 Member Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 140

Quote:
 Originally Posted by IKnewIt For some reason, I have a complete mental block on determining how to do continuity corrections. I always know when one is needed, but I never know whether to add 0.5 or subtract it (I know that sometimes it's not 0.5, but that's the most common). Any insight would be greatly appreciated. So far, I've just been adding every time, and that seems to be working in 90%+ of cases.
my method for continuity correction is the following:

1. FIRST, get either the Pr(X>=x) or Pr(X<=x expression). Always. Don't bother with the trying to figure out what to do with either the > or >= signs. So, if you want only greater than 50 claims, realize you want greater than or equal to 51 claims.

2. Then, make the range of what your searching for MORE inclusive. So, instead of wanting when it's greater than or equal to 51 claims, you now want greater than or equal to 50.5 claims.

p.s. don't forget the continuity correction isn't always .5. It's typically .5 because it's half of the units your measuring in, which is usually 1 unit. So, if your data is in increments of 500, then your continuity correction is 250.

edit: just realized you're aware of it not always being .5
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