Actuarial Outpost Spring 2011 Discussion
 User Name Remember Me? Password
 Register Blogs Wiki FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
 FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

 CAS 3 - specific material Please keep posts regarding material common to both exams in the upper forum

 Thread Tools Display Modes
#31
05-06-2011, 05:58 PM
 Wolf Follower Member CAS Join Date: Aug 2009 Studying for Exam 8 College: Appalachian State Alumni Posts: 302

Think I got 2-something for the gambling one. I used the BErnoulli shortcut for variance.

I also got 0.5 for the last one - the order statistics one. I wrote out and integrated the pdf just to make sure.

The Markov chain one where we had to find P, did everyone interpret that as receiving the last payment at time 4, making the incoming and outgoing offset by 1?

WF
#32
05-06-2011, 05:59 PM
 MrTomD Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Ohio College: Otterbein University Posts: 51

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Theophilus I got .5 for the last one as well. 208 for the gambling one I think....
So did I. Last question = 0.5
#33
05-06-2011, 05:59 PM
 Is This Wilt Chamberlain? Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Studying for beer Posts: 1,931

I always draw Binomial Trees for those Markov ones (thanks MFE), I find it helps keep everything straight. I don't remember my answer though.
#34
05-06-2011, 06:03 PM
 Theophilus Member Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 76

The two I could not answer were the multi-decrement problem and the lifecon problem with given values for two different premiums and a reserve that asked you to solve for a third premium.
#35
05-06-2011, 06:04 PM
 Is This Wilt Chamberlain? Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Studying for beer Posts: 1,931

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Wolf Follower The Markov chain one where we had to find P, did everyone interpret that as receiving the last payment at time 4, making the incoming and outgoing offset by 1? WF
Hmm, pretty sure I started P at time 1 (so v1, v2, v3). I think it said P happened at the beginning of the year when it switched from state 2 to state 1 (or whichever it was)..so I assumed that the switch from year 0 to year 1 counted. I hope I didn't do that one wrong, I was sure that was a +2.
#36
05-06-2011, 06:05 PM
 peem Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 402

I recall being quite a bit below the 0.95th percentile of the Chi-square distribution for the Chi-square problem...

For some reason, I was struggling with the prob exactly one death problem... I had to end of guessing on that one...

For one of the Poisson problems, time til the 2nd event... I believe I found lambda' = (lambda)S(30K). Then Time til the 2nd event is Gamma(alpha=2, theta = 1/lambda'). Var = (theta)(1/lambda')^2.

Sorry. Too lazy to Tex.

The very first question I believe was a gimme, unless I totally screwed that one up. (1/mu)^2
#37
05-06-2011, 06:06 PM
 dballs33 Member Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 140

Will a PAK be started?
__________________
Spoiler:
PFMMFEMLCCCAS15CAS26
#38
05-06-2011, 06:09 PM
 MrTomD Member Join Date: May 2011 Location: Ohio College: Otterbein University Posts: 51

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Theophilus The two I could not answer were the multi-decrement problem and the lifecon problem with given values for two different premiums and a reserve that asked you to solve for a third premium.
I believe there was a simple formula to find the other P when given the other two P's and the reserve. (Thanks MLC)
#39
05-06-2011, 06:09 PM
 Is This Wilt Chamberlain? Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Studying for beer Posts: 1,931

Quote:
 Originally Posted by peem The very first question I believe was a gimme, unless I totally screwed that one up. (1/mu)^2
Yeah that was nice of them. I still spent a minute staring at it saying "I have to be missing something..."
#40
05-06-2011, 06:10 PM
 Wolf Follower Member CAS Join Date: Aug 2009 Studying for Exam 8 College: Appalachian State Alumni Posts: 302

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Is This Wilt Chamberlain? Hmm, pretty sure I started P at time 1 (so v1, v2, v3). I think it said P happened at the beginning of the year when it switched from state 2 to state 1 (or whichever it was)..so I assumed that the switch from year 0 to year 1 counted. I hope I didn't do that one wrong, I was sure that was a +2.
I wouldn't worry about it. I may well be wrong. Interpreting the times is usually the biggest challenge in Markov Chain problems.

WF

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:06 AM.

 -- Default Style - Fluid Width ---- Default Style - Fixed Width ---- Old Default Style ---- Easy on the eyes ---- Smooth Darkness ---- Chestnut ---- Apple-ish Style ---- If Apples were blue ---- If Apples were green ---- If Apples were purple ---- Halloween 2007 ---- B&W ---- Halloween ---- AO Christmas Theme ---- Turkey Day Theme ---- AO 2007 beta ---- 4th Of July Contact Us - Actuarial Outpost - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top