English Premier League Prediction Contest 2011-12

[ditkaworshipper]

Alright, just looking for Chelsea to make that end of the season run and flip the table.

[Abstract Actuary]

I know much of this has been said, but I just want to walk through it all again now. Mostly for my own benefit. There are three "races" remaining.

The race for the League Champion.

Originally Posted by Abstract Actuary

Pts GD Team (remaining games, comments)
83 +61 Man City (@Newcastle, vQPR)
83 +53 Man Utd (vSwansea, @Sunderland)

There are no playoffs, most points win. If they are tied, goal differential (GD) is the first tiebreaker.

Man City has the inside track since they are tied and have a big lead in GD, but they have a harder finish. Newcastle is a top team this year and is fighting for a spot on the Champions League and they have to play them on the road. That is a very hard win. At home against QPR should be a slam dunk, since QPR is a poor squad this year, but QPR may be fighting for their spot in the Premier League next year (avoiding relegation) and as the old football saying goes "any given Sunday".

Man United on the other hand has two games against mid-table teams. Neither of these teams have anything to play for, so I expect their schedule to be a bit easier than City's. @Sunderland is a difficult game though as Sunderland is a tough spot to play and you know that they would love to play spoiler to the historical front runners.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Man City draws one of it's two remaining games (and wins the other) and then Sunderland pulls off the draw to give Man City the title.

87 Man City
87 Man United

---------------------------------

The race for the Champions League spots. There are four spots from the Premier League for next year's Champions League. Typically these go to the top four teams in the table, BUT there is a wrench this year. If Chelsea wins the Champions League this year (in the final against Bayern Munich) then they get one of the four spots no matter what. To make things even worse this game will happen on May 19 after the Premiership season has ended. So it might be crucial to get into that 3rd spot.

Originally Posted by Abstract Actuary

Pts GD Team (remaining games, comments)
66 +24 Arsenal (vNorwich, @West Brom)
62 +20 Tottenham (@Bolton, @Aston Villa, vFulham)
62 +7 Newcastle (@Chelsea, vMan City, @Everton)
61 +23 Chelsea (vNewcastle, @Liverpool, vBlackburn)

The first two spots go to the two Manchester clubs. With an extra game remaining there is effectively a two point difference separating 3rd and 6th place, meaning any team could realistically finish in any of the four spots.

Arsenal definitely has the inside track. They have the 4 points (1 point effectively) lead and play against two teams with nothing left to play for. Like United, though, their final game @ West Brom could be a challenge, especially if West Brom can play spoiler. [aside: as blasphemous as it may be, Arsenal is my second favorite team, Chelsea my third (I'm a "London guy" - not from there, but spent time there)]

Tottenham are next in line. They have the inside track to 4th place with the goal differential over Newcastle (but not Chelsea or Arsenal). They have an interesting finish, though. They play two teams at the bottom of the table and a mid-table team with nothing to play for. Sounds easy, right? Wrong. Their two games against bottom table teams are both on the road and are both against teams that might be fighting to avoid relegation. Their schedule is better than Newcastle's or Chelsea's who have to play each other and against Man City and @Liverpool respectively, but not much better. Add to that the fact that they may need to get to 3rd place for a Champions League spot and they have a difficult road.

Newcastle have the most difficult schedule remaining. They play @Chelsea who are red hot right now, at home against Man City who are the top of the table and will feel that the game is a must-win and then finish the season on the road against Everton, who have nothing to play for but are nonetheless a formidable opponent (7th in the table currently).

Chelsea is in a tough spot as well, but they have two chances to get to the Champions League this year. In the next two weeks they can forget about the Champions League final and concentrate on earning it the old fashioned way. First, they play at home against Newcastle, where the loser will likely be out of consideration. Then they play @Liverpool. Although Liverpool have nothing to play for that is a very hard place to play and Liverpool won't go without a fight. Finally they play at home against Blackburn. A home game against a bottom team to end the season is nice, but there is a possibility that Blackburn will need some points to avoid relegation so it isn't a given.

My prediction is it finished
Arsenal (70 points)
Tottenham (69 points)
Chelsea (68 points)
Newcastle (65 points

----------------------------

The final race is the fight to avoid relegation. Three teams are relegated. Wolverhampton will be one of them. The other two spots are up for grabs.

Originally Posted by Abstract Actuary

Pts GD Team (remaining games, comments)
37 -14 Aston Villa (@Tottenham, vNorwich)
37 -22 Wigan (@Blackburn, vWolves)
34 -23 QPR (@Stoke, vMan City)
34 -28 Bolton (@Tottenham, @West Brom, v Stoke)
31 -28 Blackburn (vWigan, vChelsea)
24 -41 Wolves (nothing to play for, relegated)

Villa definitely has the inside track to safety. They have a 3 point cushion, a dominate GD and a very winnable final game.

Wigan is in good shape as well with a very, very winnable final game against the worst team in the league at home (Wolves). But a loss at Blackburn might be hard to avoid and could make relegation much more realistic.

QPR is in a tough spot. Their one advantage is a GD lead on Bolton, but they have the same points with one less game to play and they play on the road against a mid-table team and at home against Man City (top team in the league). They are probably the favorites for the final relegation spot.

Bolton has the inside track to avoid relegation with the additional game, but it won't be easy. They trail in GD and play @Tottenham. So let's chalk that up to a loss (not given, but makes things more interesting) which means QPR and Bolton will be tied with two games to play. But those two games are much, much easier for Bolton than for QPR. They play two lower table teams with nothing to play for and get to finish the season at home.

Blackburn has a tough mountain to climb. They need to pass two teams. The only thing in their favor is that they have two home games. But both teams are playing for something and it will be tough to accumulate enough points to avoid relegation.

My prediction
41 Aston Villa
41 Wigan
38 Bolton
----------
37 QPR
32 Blackburn
xx Wolves

[Abstract Actuary]

Originally Posted by MountainHawk

Where is the Europa League cutoff. That's something to play for, even if not as prestigious as CL, it's European $$.

Good point. As discussed above could be 5th or 5th+6th. So still the same teams involved and the same teams have "nothing to play for". But it is true that it could make 5th more valuable than 6th.

[Stan]

Originally Posted by Abstract Actuary

Good point. As discussed above could be 5th or 5th+6th. So still the same teams involved and the same teams have "nothing to play for". But it is true that it could make 5th more valuable than 6th.

How do you know if the 6th place team makes Europa? What is the rule on this?

[Car'a'carn]

I think both 5th and 6th places go to Europa League, since Liverpool already has a spot in it, due to winning CC.

[wooHoo]

Normally, top 3 go directly to Champions League Group Stage. #4 goes to champions league playoff round - 2 legged tie vs another non champion qualifier.

Number 5 goes to Europa Cup.

Other Europa Spots are FA cup winner and Carling Cup Winner.

If the winner of the CC cup has already qualified for CL, then the next premier league spot goes to Europa Cup as well.

If the FA Cup winner has qualified for CL, then the FA Cup runner up gets the europa league spot. In some cases, it goes to the next placed EPL team. (i.e. if both the runner up and winner are already qualified for europe).


If a team wins the CL and are not in the top 4, the other spots are moved up one. So if Chelsea wins CL, then only 1-3 qualify for Champions league. and 4 goes to Europa Cup.

[win diesel]

Originally Posted by wooHoo

Normally, top 3 go directly to Champions League Group Stage. #4 goes to champions league playoff round - 2 legged tie vs another non champion qualifier.

Number 5 goes to Europa Cup.

Other Europa Spots are FA cup winner and Carling Cup Winner.

If the winner of the CC cup has already qualified for CL, then the next premier league spot goes to Europa Cup as well.

If the FA Cup winner has qualified for CL, then the FA Cup runner up gets the europa league spot. In some cases, it goes to the next placed EPL team. (i.e. if both the runner up and winner are already qualified for europe).


If a team wins the CL and are not in the top 4, the other spots are moved up one. So if Chelsea wins CL, then only 1-3 qualify for Champions league. and 4 goes to Europa Cup.

So what is all of this stuff?

Just playoffs vs teams in other leagues? But isn't this just a function of how many teams are in these various leagues?

Seems like a battle of pizzas. Mine has the biggest slices! (Ignore the fact there are only two though)

Soccer really needs to add me as a consultant

[OddSox]

In college basketball terms:

Champions League = Big Dance of Europe
Europa League = NIT of Europe
FA/Carling/League Cups = Conference tournaments

all of which are played out slowly over the course of the regular season.

like in basketball, better leagues (conferences) get more playoff spots.

it's not a perfect analogy but I think it's good enough.

[win diesel]

Originally Posted by OddSox

In college basketball terms:

Champions League = Big Dance of Europe
Europa League = NIT of Europe
FA/Carling/League Cups = Conference tournaments

all of which are played out slowly over the course of the regular season.

like in basketball, better leagues (conferences) get more playoff spots.

it's not a perfect analogy but I think it's good enough.

I understand but if the EPL only had 8 teams they would be more likely to win the Big Dance of Europe

[Abstract Actuary]

What I don't like about the college basketball analogy is that in college basketball the conference championship is near meaningless next to the NCAA tournament, whereas in European football I would say winning the EPL is almost as important, if not more so, to the English league teams. All the other leagues aren't nearly as competitive so winning the Champions League is probably the most important.