CRASH AND BURN

[The Shining]

Originally Posted by d123454321

I'm waiting for Dow 1000....that's where we were before the credit bubble of phony prosperity began in the early 1980s..we shall end up back there soon.

is this because of the companies in the DOW, or are you predicting a drop in the overall market? What is you target on the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000?

[ElDucky]

1000 will never happen with hellicopter Ben at the helm.

Agreed. Right now, my worst-case scenario for the Dow has it around 5300; I suspect we'll see 7000 eventually [read: when something finally happens and there's no "we can save them too!" solution to be found]. If the Dow gets back to 1000, all of us have bigger things to worry about than whether it's a great time to get back into the market.

[d123454321]

Originally Posted by Irish Blues

Agreed. Right now, my worst-case scenario for the Dow has it around 5300; I suspect we'll see 7000 eventually [read: when something finally happens and there's no "we can save them too!" solution to be found]. If the Dow gets back to 1000, all of us have bigger things to worry about than whether it's a great time to get back into the market.

We do have big BIG BIG things to worry about.

The last 30 yrs were all fake economic growth. The government grew 6%/yr assuming we had real growth when it was all fake. Every year from 1980-2008 debt grew faster than GDP. Luckily I'm speaking with actuaries who understand MATH and know this is a ponzi scheme, because of the nature of exponential growth and must lead to a bust.

Federal Deficits spending is now 12% of GDP....repeat that to yourself and think about it. A depression is guaranteed once reality sets in, not even including the over-leveraged private sector contracting.

There is more systematic leverage than any time EVER, way more than in 1929.

I say DOW 1000 because that is where DOW was before the bubble started, theoretically it may undershoot it and over-correct.

S&P I'm looking for low 100s. DOW has no support until 4000 (not too strong), then low 3000s (heavier), then 1000-1500 technically.

Small caps will get destroyed because they lack access to liquidity to withstand the coming Financial F5 hurricane.

[d123454321]

Originally Posted by ElDucky

1000 will never happen with hellicopter Ben at the helm.

I have a different perspective on that... the Fed's QE's were 1.5 trillion total, right?

Well he will be paralyzed. The total credit market debt in the US is $55 trillion, about historical norms compared to GDP this should be like $20-25 trillion.

What the heck is another $2 trillion in QE 3&4 (if it happened) going to do when there's $30 trillion in debt that will potential collapse? Like pissing into 100mph winds.

Also, we have less aware politicians like Palin and Perry speaking against the Fed, now it is mainstream to be critical of the Fed, Perry said it was treasonous....the Fed won't get away with anymore QE.

and also, bernanke tried to save everything beginning in september 2007 when he slashed rates, and the market fell 58% despite him trying to prop it up for many many months.

The Fed can't stop what's coming.

[The Shining]

Originally Posted by d123454321

I say DOW 1000 because that is where DOW was before the bubble started, theoretically it may undershoot it and over-correct.

S&P I'm looking for low 100s. DOW has no support until 4000 (not too strong), then low 3000s (heavier), then 1000-1500 technically.

either or because you can not seriously be suggesting S&P at 100 and DOW at 1000. No consideration for almost 30 years of inflation? You really believe the markets are 1100% over priced? Have you sold everything you own and shorted the market? You said you are in cash and bonds. If the whole global economy is 1100% over price, how is cash and bonds safe? At those numbers there are only three options: 1) Keep investing with hopes the bubble keeps going, 2) Spend all income/no savings, or 3) bet everything and short the market.

[Dismal Science]

I've been selling some puts as well lately but the wild swings make me a bit nervous

[The Shining]

I've been buying into the dips. I also think there are some bargains on large multinational corps.

[Dismal Science]

I would be buying more as well but I have a lot invested already. Probably 80% stocks / 20% cash at this point.

[johnny storm]

Originally Posted by d123454321

The last 30 yrs were all fake economic growth.

Pretty reasonable stance. It's not like cell phones, the internet, PCs, CDs, GPS, digital cameras, email, and ATMs have had any impact on our economy.