Harper...Clement...Stronach

[Utanapishtim]

All right, I know there must be some other canucks hanging about this forum, and I figure there should be some correlation between actuaries and Conservatives, so hopefully I can elicit some comment here.

I`ve been casually following the campaigning, though there seems to be little enough media excitement about it in general, and have the following impression of the candidates:

Stephen Harper - He`s the experienced political leader who took the Alliance leadership when they were looking for a moderate in order to keep open their merger and eastern expansion options. The only candidate who`s already in federal politics, as well as I believe the eldest. In the broader public view, he suffers from the taint of his previous association with the Reform party, but seems otherwise clear of personal scandal.

Belinda Stronach - With no personal political experience but several respected backers and advisors, she`s the `Arnold Schwarzenegger`of the nominees. Little policy outlined, but favoured in terms of media exposure, trying to run on looks and money, presenting herself as a departure from the status quo. And hey, it worked for Arnie.

Tony Clement - He may have something oing for im in Ontario, but as far as I`m aware he`s a virtual unkown outside of it. At least he`s bilingual, that`s got to count for something, eh? As well, his saving grace may be the format of theis three-horse race: with Harper and Stronach positioned as redneck or radical, respectively, he could be a less-objectionable second choice for many from either camp, if he manages to survive the first round.

Sound accurate, or did I miss somthing? What do you think?

[Griffin 5]

You have elections in Canada? I thought you guys just sort of took turns being president.

[Utanapishtim]

Come on, everyone gets elections, from the Model UN to the Drinking Club. Surely our canadian political clubs deserve as much? (:

[Paul Brand]

Here's my take

Harper - Very intelligent, has more reasonable expectations than Joe Clark did, and saw the necessity of merging the two right of centre parties, even though it meant compromise to some extent. Though I agree with his position on same sex marriage, it's not going to fly very well in the East. It's also unfortunate that he lost favor with Atlantic Canadians after his unfortunate comments early on his reign as Alliance leader. I think he just needs a little more charisma (but not as much as Stockwell Day).

Stronach - I think she does have a lot of business savvy. She would do a good job at growing the Canadian economy and developing better Canada/US relations. I think people have been unfair to her by comparing her to Paris Hilton. These people haven't even had the chance to get to know her yet. Somehow being a daughter of a rich business man makes you a bad person. Her lack of political experience is good and bad at the same time. Her political connections are unbelievable, and you can be sure that she will have plenty of help on policy making if she needs any. Endorsements by Mulroney, Harris, Klein, Filmon, etc. will probably help more than hinder her. She might get a bit of trouble getting the support of social conservatives, but I doubt the social conservatives would have a higher preference to vote Liberal than a Conservative led by Stronach.

Clement - Well, I just don't know much about him. Hopefully he will be able to clarify what he stands for in the near future. My guess is that he will be a distant third in the first ballot, though he may in fact turn out to be a nice compromise between Harper and Stronach.

I would have liked seeing McKay or Lord run for leadership, they would have made it a much more interesting race.

My respect for Joe Clark, Scott Brison, Rick Borotsik, and Bouchand has decreased considerably after their refusal to join the new party. If Joe Clark is right that 1+1 is less than 1, it would be because he is discouarging others from joining the new party.

My prediction: Stronach will win. The new party will do better (than the combined PC/CA seat totals in the last election) in Ontario, about the same as last election in the Maritimes, lose a couple in the Prairies, will get blanked out in Quebec, and do worse in BC. Overall, I think they will lose about 5 seats. Joe Clark will say he told you so, even though the real reason the Conservatives will do worse this time around is because Liberal PM Paul Martin is positioning himself more right-of centre than former PM Jean Chretien. I think the NDP may double their seats next election.