2012 US Election Prediction Game

[OddSox]

Originally Posted by MountainHawk

#8 is number of votes.

whoa, seriously?

ETA: that makes a big difference and I would think % would be more reflective of how 'close' a state was. for example:

Montana vs. North Carolina in 2008, respectively:

~11,000 vote margin vs. ~14,000 vote margin

but due to size, that is a 2.25% margin vs. a 0.32% margin.

[MountainHawk]

Originally Posted by MountainHawk

BTW, #8 will be by vote count, and #3 will be based on the ideal electoral college, not counting any faithless electors.

From the first page.

[OddSox]

Originally Posted by MountainHawk

From the first page.

I'm much too busy to read anything not in the first post. I have to be efficient if I'm going to get all these forum games in and do my job.

[MightySchoop]

oh, what the heck...


1. Who will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States?
(10 points for correct answer, zero otherwise)
Romney

2. Who will be the Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States? (10 points for correct answer, zero otherwise)
Bobby Jindal

3. How many electoral votes will President Obama receive?
(25 for the exact answer, 20 points for being 1 off, -1 point for each further vote off)
252

4. To the nearest tenth of a percentage point, what percentage of the popular vote will the Republican candidate receive for President?
(50 for the exact answer, 40 points for being .1 off, -1 point for each further .1 off)
49.8%

5. To the nearest million, how many popular votes will be cast?
(20 for exact answer, -4 for each 1M off)
168 million

6. How many seats will the Democrats win in the House of Representatives?
(30 for exact answer, 25 points for being 1 off, -1 point for each further seat off)
207

7. How many seats will the Republicans have in the new Senate? (20 for exact answer, -4 for each seat off)
51

8. What state will be the closest margin of victory in the Presidental race?
(20 points if your state ranks 1st, -2 points for each step down the list)
Michigan

9. How many third party or independent candidates will be seated in the House and Senate combined? (10 points for exact answer, zero otherwise)
2

10. How many governorships will the Republicans win of the 11 being contested? (10 for exact answer, 5 for 1 off, zero otherwise)
6

[MountainHawk]

Less than 5 hours left.

[Guerilla poster]

Originally Posted by OddSox

I'm much too busy to read anything not in the first post. I have to be efficient if I'm going to get all these forum games in and do my job.

Ditto, you don't get to my pc by reading,

[MountainHawk]

January is closed.

Summary of guesses:

1. 19 of us think Romney is the nominee, 2 have picked Paul
2. Lots of difference on the VP, though. 3 have picked Santorum and Rubio, 2 picked Daniels, Portmann and Pawlenty, and 1 picked each of Goss, McDonnell, Huntsman, Rice, Bachman, Christie, Haley, Bush, and Jindal.
3. 9 of us picked a Republican win in the EC (ranging from 190-255 EV for Obama), 11 of us picked an Obama win (270-329), and 1 person picked a 269-269 draw.
4. On average we picked the Republican to get 49.4% of the popular vote, ranging from 45.7% to 55%.
5. On average we picked 127.5M Americans to come out to vote. excluding the one odd choice of 73M, the average jumps to 130.2M.
6. Not one single person see the Democrats gaining control of the house. On average they get 198 seats, ranging from 168 to 217.
7. 12 people see a Republican Senate (from 51 to 56 seats), 5 people see a split Senate, and 4 see a Democratic Senate (3 at 49, and one at 43)
8. Ohio is the most popular choice for the closes state with 6. Other repeat choices were Florida and North Carolina with 3, and Michigan with 2. Single contestants chose Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.
9. One person thinks there will be 6 independents in Congress, 5 think 3, 9 think 2, and 6 more think just 1.
10. 1 person see 7 Democratic governor victories to just 4 for the Republicans, 10 think there will be 5 R wins, 7 think 6 R wins, and 3 have 7 R wins.

[MountainHawk]

I think Patience is planning on some states secedeing before the election with his 73M voters and 43 R Senate seats.

[FattyMcGee]

Originally Posted by MountainHawk

I think Patience is planning on some states secedeing before the election with his 73M voters and 43 R Senate seats.

as for why I am the only one to put 6 independents, I think that people are starting to find that political parties have served their purpose and are past their time. I think that will lead to more people declaring themselves as Independent, or, if they happen to lose in a primary but still have a big bankroll, to go without their party label (a la Lieberman). Some may win, many won't, but the trend is upward.

[MightySchoop]

Originally Posted by MountainHawk

I think Patience is planning on some states secedeing before the election with his 73M voters and 43 R Senate seats.

I picked my # of voters way too high... I didn't really think about it.