Variation / Bankroll

[MNBridge]

How much variation should one expect at NL and tourney play?

It feels like when I've been playing NL I sit and play my a** off at a $100 game for an hour to win $25. Then the inevitable happens I catch a hand go all in and someone draws on me (Game Over).

I have looked at my last 6 all ins (Tracker) and I have been the favorite on everyone at the point of the all in (I think not sure on one (straight flush draw against 1 overcard and on undercard)). But that really doesn't do me any good now does it?

OK so here I am down $600 and I can look at 6 hands that have cost me all of that plus where I was the favorite.

So say I win all six (which would be unlikely also I realize). Now I'm up about $800 (estimated) for a $1400 swing.

So I guess my point is how can you tell if you are a positive expectation player? How long should it take to surface and what kind of a bankroll is needed to survive the low points?

I'm ready to give up, and I really love this game. Just to frustrating to watch yourself get drawn out, over and over and over again.

[Bama Gambler]

NL ring game? I don't play NL ring games. Swings are too big.

[MNBridge]

Originally Posted by Bama Gambler

NL ring game? I don't play NL ring games. Swings are too big.

Kind of hoping you'd answer Bama you seem to have a good grasp on this NL stuff.

OK so I've decided (after a night of tossing and turning) that I'm going to stick to $10 single table NL tourneys.
And for every $100 up I will allow 1 multitable $20.

At what point should I move on? If after X tournaments I'm up $Y. Any advice? At what point (down) can I decide I suck and there is just something I'm missing?

These last 3 months have been hell, on the ego and bankroll.

[Sotally Tober]

Originally Posted by MNPoker

what kind of a bankroll is needed to survive the low points?

According to Doyle Brunson in his book, you should try to have a bankroll of 200X the BB (if not a little more) to be able to withstand the low points at a ring game NLHE table.

[O. Hannah]

And if you play Pot limit...that probably drops to around 50x BB

[Hummer]

In the NL ring games, you don't really have a choice in having 200 x BB. PartyPoker is set up to be 50 x BB. I play the $50 NL and PL on occasion. I think I'm up, but just barely. My regular Thurs and Sunday groups play NL starting with $20-40.

Couple things that may help:

1. Since your opponents have been on the draw, I will assume you are the agressor post-flop and at the turn. I would slow down your betting a bit. I realize you want to push drawing hands out, but you need to protect your bankroll against a bust. Bet's of $5-10 on the flop will do two things:
a. Tell your drawing opponent that if he doesn't get his card, it's only going to get more expensive
b. Doesn't make him feel pot committed at the turn, making it easier for him to call an all-in with just a draw

2. This is obvious, but make sure you are in correct position. It's much easier to try and determine if someone is on the come, if you have the luxury of acting last. Check your 6 hands to see where you were in relation to them. For that matter, why don't you post the hands if you can. Drawing hands in early position like to make a small bet (1 x BB) if they have four to a draw on the flop. If they miss, they tend to check on the turn (better players will bet again, but bigger). This should give you a good idea if they are indeed on a draw. Now if the turn comes a flush card (or near card if st draw) watch for the check raise. I will almost always check for a showdown if a 3rd flush card comes out on the river. You may not win as much, but you protect from a raise that you probably shouldn't call.

Post your hands, and that will make it easier for everyone to give you some solid advice instead of general ideas.