The big ratemaking question

[actuarialista]

Originally Posted by Joshua0317

Yeah I know, but I just convinced myself otherwise on the exam. I think it was nerves. I work with PP trends all the time and I have created some before. Yet today, I decided to invent a method. OF ALL DAYS BRAIN, WHYYY!!!!!!!

I understand--the stress and the rush make it so hard to think clearly. Horrible exams.

[FourKicks]

Originally Posted by Elsaball

That means you chose the same # of point fit for freq and severity

this is what i did, 4-point fit for both. the frequency was constant over the last five data points i believe. the severity...i think 4-point fit or 6-point fit would've been a good answer (severity was significantly higher earlier than that)...i chose 4-point fit for severity since the last four points were trending upward.

i also felt like i didn't write as much as a 5.75 point question should merit. not sure how detailed i was supposed to be. hopefully i hit the key points.

[actuarialista]

Originally Posted by FourKicks

this is what i did, 4-point fit for both. the frequency was constant over the last five data points i believe. the severity...i think 4-point fit or 6-point fit would've been a good answer (severity was significantly higher earlier than that)...i chose 4-point fit for severity since the last four points were trending upward.

i also felt like i didn't write as much as a 5.75 point question should merit. not sure how detailed i was supposed to be. hopefully i hit the key points.

Yay! 4-point fit for both!

[Y2A]

Does anyone remember what the prospective period was for this one? Was this the one with 2 yr reviews and annual policies or am I thinking about another problem?

[TheZaha]

I thing that's a different one...i remember actually catching that

[Y2A]

Yeah, maybe the premium trend problem. I can't remember getting a 3.75 for the loss trend period, I'm going crazy thinking that maybe I put down the avg written date as the trend to period for that problem. It was one of the first ones I tackled so I don't know.

[TheZaha]

I'm in the same boat. I cannot at all remember what i did for trend period - i think i may have forgotten to do it completely.

[Elsaball]

Originally Posted by TheZaha

I'm in the same boat. I cannot at all remember what i did for trend period - i think i may have forgotten to do it completely.

It was 3.75 years (7/1 to 4/1 I believe)

[HuskerCAS]

Agreed - 3.75.

For the credibility questions, I did Jan to July (1.5) and I can't remember what it said, will have to check the booklet.

[Elsaball]

That's what I got. When do we get our booklet? And what do we get back? Our physical exam? Or just the extra sheets we may have used?