Originally Posted by independent
I'd say that the minimum wage in the US impacts so few workers, and the elasticities are so low, that it's impossible to get good empirical data. Any actual impact of minimum wage changes is drowned out by the normal background noise in economic statistics.
That said, if the author wants to go down that road, I think his "conclusion" should have included one more number. It should read
" I estimate that
the pending 14% increase in New Jersey’s minimum wage will increase unemployment
among workers without a high school education (by approximately two percentage
points), increase unemployment among workers without high school diplomas in
general (by approximately one percentage point), and have no effect on unemployment
among college-educated workers."
(The increase was from $7.25 to $8.25)
There are a lot of caveats, many of which was mentioned in my economics thread. There are a lot of hidden costs and the true impact is spread over a period of time. The costs are real, however.
The second problem is that minimum wage increase is always part of a larger political agenda. So you have to consider the entire agenda as a whole. This is tougher than it sounds because much of the agenda is hidden and is only revealed incrementally, over an extended period of time.