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  #1  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:26 PM
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MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
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Default AO Prediction Game

This is your chance to show off your skills as expert future-tellers/actuaries. In this game, you are trying to project the probability over future events occurring. Be warned, the scoring penalizes overconfidence, but if you want to score points, you can't just 50/50 everything either.

Rules

1. In this game, you are attempting to assess the probability of each statement being true. You may ask for clarification of how a statement will be interpreted until 5pm of the day before the question is open for projections.

2. All probabilities must be a whole number. That is, you can project 65% or 67%, but not "2/3" or 1/e or anything like that.

3. Projections may be changed at any time. Projections are final for the day at 5pm eastern time.

4. Questions that ask if an event will occur will close immediately if the event does occur. The closing time is the last time you can make a projection if the event hasn't happened yet.

5. Scoring:

Scoring is done in three steps:
a) Calculate the Brier score. The Brier score is calculated as the day-weighted average of the square deviation of projection - actual. For example, if for 30 days you had a projection of 60% and then the last 10 days you had a projection of 80%, and the event did occur, we calculate: 30/40 (.6-1)^2 + 10/40 (.8-1^2) = .75 * .16 + .25 * .04 = 0.13
b) Calculate the raw score. The Raw Score = 160 * (.25 - Brier Score) = 19.2.
c) Calculate the Final score. The Final Score = Raw Score * .5, if the brier score > .25, otherwise Final Score = Raw Score. The Final score will be rounded to one decimal place

6. The contest will have quarterly, yearly, and all time leaderboard, by topic (Politics, Sports, Economic, Other) and overall, based on total scores and average per question scores. To qualify for the average per question leaderboards:

Quarterly, by topic: 50% of questions closed in that quarter and topic answered.
Quarterly, overall: Qualify in at least 3 topics

Yearly, by topic: 50% of questions closed in that year and topic answered.
Yearly, overall: Qualify in at least 2 topics + at least 5 questions in a third topic

All time, topic: At least 50% of questions closed answered, or 15 questions, whichever is lower.
All time, overall: At least 50% of questions closed answered, or 25 questions, whichever is lower.

7. If a player joins a question late, they will be assumed to have projected 50% from the open date to the first projection.

8. Players are under no obligation to answer ever question in a topic or every question.

9. The moderator will endeavor to keep approximately 5 active questions at most times in each topic. I will also try to give 1-2 week of lead time for questions before they open.

10. Scoring for a closed question will be posted after the truth value of the statement is determined. Players have 72 hours to challenge scoring from the time it is posted.
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Last edited by MountainHawk; 09-18-2017 at 01:57 PM.. Reason: Change scoring to make .5 projection worth 0 points.
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  #2  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:26 PM
MountainHawk's Avatar
MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

Current Questions

Politics

P1. (10/01/17-12/31/17) :Between 10/1/2017 and 12/31/2017, at least one of President Trump's cabinet appointees will resign.
P2. (10/01/17-03/31/18) :Between 10/1/2017 and 3/31/2018, Theresa May will resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
P3. (10/01/17-04/30/18) :In the 2018 Italian general election, the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico) will win at least 300 seats.
P4. (10/01/17-11/05/18) :On the elections of November 6th, Republicans will win at least 220 seats in the House of Representatives.
P5. (10/01/17-12/31/18) :On 12/31/2018, Donald Trump will be President of the United States.

Sports

S2. (10/01/17-12/15/17) :England will win at least 2 tests in the 2017-2018 Ashes.
S3. (10/01/17-01/31/18) :The NFC team will win Super Bowl LII.
S4. (10/01/17-04/01/18) :A quarterback will be drafted #1 overall in the 2018 NFL draft.
S5. (10/01/17-06/30/18) :The World Cup final will feature 2 teams from UEFA.
S6. (11/01/17-02/01/18) :England or Ireland will win the 2018 Six Nations Rugby Tournament.


Economics

E1. (10/01/17-12/27/17) :The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close 2017 above 23,000.
E2. (10/01/17-03/31/18) :Euro and the British Pound will reach parity on or before 4/15/2018.
E3. (10/01/17-06/30/18) :The last 12 month inflation number as reported by the department of labor as of June 2018 during July 2018 will be greater than 2.3%. (CPI-U, seasonally adjusted)
E4. (10/01/17-06/30/18) :The Bank of Japan short term interest rates will remain negative on 6/30/2018.
E5. (10/01/17-12/31/18) :Tesla's stock (TSLA) will trade for over $450 at the close of trading in 2018.


Other

O1. (10/01/17-01/15/18) :Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi will gross in excess of $500,000,000 in the US by 1/31/2018.
O3. (10/01/17-06/30/18) :The majority of quarters of data released by the Actuaries Climate Index between 10/1/17 and 7/15/18 will be over 2.00 standard deviations above normal for the entire region.
O4. (10/01/17-12/31/18) :SpaceX will successfully send a spacecraft into lunar orbit before 1/15/2019.
O5. (10/01/17-12/31/18) :The final Game of Thrones season will premier before 1/31/2019.
O6. (10/15/17-4/30/18) : The 2018 Eurovision Song Contest winner will be from France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, or the United Kingdom.
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Last edited by MountainHawk; 10-24-2017 at 02:59 PM..
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  #3  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:26 PM
MountainHawk's Avatar
MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
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CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

Closed but Undecided Questions


Scored Questions


O2. A terrorist attack killing at least 10 people will happen in the United States, France , or the United Kingdom (not counting embassies or overseas territories) between 10/1/2017 - 4/15/2018. -- Answer: YES, Las Vegas mass shooting, 10/1/2017.

S1. The American League team will win the 2017 World Series. -- Answer: YES, Astros win over the Dodgers, 4 games to 3.
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Last edited by MountainHawk; 11-02-2017 at 06:00 PM..
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  #4  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:26 PM
MountainHawk's Avatar
MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

All Time Leaderboard, Total

A Student 34.2
"Optimal Consensus" 29.5
ImPrettyDumb 19.5
MuggleActuary 14.7
Vorian Atreides 10.8
Brute Force 10.8
Ezekial Cumberland 2.4
Average -9.2
Ultimate Anyone? -17.5
Childish Gambino -25.5
Mountainhawk -51.4
BingBoing -120


All Time Leaderboard, Sports

ImPrettyDumb 19.5
Vorian Atreides 10.8
"Optimal Consensus" 5.7
MuggleActuary 0.3
A Student -4.2
Average -11.8
Mountainhawk -13.6
Ultimate Anyone? -17.5
Brute Force -19.2
Childish Gambino -25.5
Ezekial Cumberland -27.6
BingBoing -60


All Time Leaderboard, Other

A Student 38.4
Brute Force 30.0
Ezekial Cumberland 30.0
"Optimal Consensus" 23.8
MuggleActuary 14.4
Average 2.6
Childish Gambino 0.0
ImPrettyDumb 0
Vorian Atreides 0
Mountainhawk (37.8)
BingBoing (60.0)




(Average per question coming once there have been more questions closed)
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Last edited by MountainHawk; 11-02-2017 at 05:56 PM..
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  #5  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:26 PM
MountainHawk's Avatar
MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

2017 Leaderboard, Total

A Student 34.2
"Optimal Consensus" 29.5
ImPrettyDumb 19.5
MuggleActuary 14.7
Vorian Atreides 10.8
Brute Force 10.8
Ezekial Cumberland 2.4
Average -9.2
Ultimate Anyone? -17.5
Childish Gambino -25.5
Mountainhawk -51.4
BingBoing -120


2017 Leaderboard, Sports

ImPrettyDumb 19.5
Vorian Atreides 10.8
"Optimal Consensus" 5.7
MuggleActuary 0.3
A Student -4.2
Average -11.8
Mountainhawk -13.6
Ultimate Anyone? -17.5
Brute Force -19.2
Childish Gambino -25.5
Ezekial Cumberland -27.6
BingBoing -60


2017 Leaderboard, Other

A Student 38.4
Brute Force 30.0
Ezekial Cumberland 30.0
"Optimal Consensus" 23.8
MuggleActuary 14.4
Average 2.6
Childish Gambino 0.0
ImPrettyDumb 0
Vorian Atreides 0
Mountainhawk (37.8)
BingBoing (60.0)
__________________

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1

Last edited by MountainHawk; 11-02-2017 at 05:57 PM..
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  #6  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:26 PM
MountainHawk's Avatar
MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

2017Q4 Leaderboard, Total

A Student 34.2
"Optimal Consensus" 29.5
ImPrettyDumb 19.5
MuggleActuary 14.7
Vorian Atreides 10.8
Brute Force 10.8
Ezekial Cumberland 2.4
Average -9.2
Ultimate Anyone? -17.5
Childish Gambino -25.5
Mountainhawk -51.4
BingBoing -120


2017Q4 Leaderboard, Sports

ImPrettyDumb 19.5
Vorian Atreides 10.8
"Optimal Consensus" 5.7
MuggleActuary 0.3
A Student -4.2
Average -11.8
Mountainhawk -13.6
Ultimate Anyone? -17.5
Brute Force -19.2
Childish Gambino -25.5
Ezekial Cumberland -27.6
BingBoing -60


2017Q4 Leaderboard, Other

A Student 38.4
Brute Force 30.0
Ezekial Cumberland 30.0
"Optimal Consensus" 23.8
MuggleActuary 14.4
Average 2.6
Childish Gambino 0.0
ImPrettyDumb 0
Vorian Atreides 0
Mountainhawk (37.8)
BingBoing (60.0)
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1

Last edited by MountainHawk; 11-02-2017 at 05:58 PM..
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  #7  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:27 PM
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MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

Prior Year Hall of Fame
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  #8  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:27 PM
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MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

Prior Quarters hall of fame
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  #9  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:27 PM
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MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

Links to scoring posts:

O2 (closed 10/1/2017)
S1 (closed 10/23/2017)
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Last edited by MountainHawk; 11-02-2017 at 05:59 PM..
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  #10  
Old 09-16-2017, 09:27 PM
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MountainHawk MountainHawk is offline
Member
CAS AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Salem, MA
Studying for Nothing!!!!
College: Lehigh University Alum
Favorite beer: Yuengling
Posts: 64,850
Default

Projections should look like this:


P1: 50%
S1: 0.30
O1: .30

Please do not use fractions --- either xx% or a decimal representation with at most 2 decimals.
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Last edited by MountainHawk; 09-16-2017 at 09:34 PM..
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