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Old 04-20-2018, 12:48 AM
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Default Way Too Early 2018 SpamLite NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest - w/25% Less Brown Losses

Welcome to the Way Too Early 2018 SpamLite NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest - w/25% Less Brown Losses.

This game was started in 2009 by our dear, departed Jables, and we now head into the 10th season of it.

For a historical perspective, please see the following:
Quote:
2009 NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest: Won by The Arbitrary, with a record of 178-77-1, good for a .6973 winning percentage.
2010 NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest: Won by trondogss, with a record of 158-98, good for a .6172 winning percentage.
2011 NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest: Won by sam10gle, with a record of 167-89, good for a .6523 winning percentage.
2012 NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest: Won by Juice, with a record of 163-92-1, good for a .6387 winning percentage.
2013 Jables Memorial NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest: Won by Ezekial Cumberland, with a record of 165-95-1, good for a 64.65 winning percentage...and naming rights of the 2014 game. He went with...
2014 AO NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest: Won by The Arbitrary, with a record of 174-81-1, good for a 68.16 winning percentage...and naming rights of the 2015 game. He went with...
2015 AO NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest - Arby's Quest for Numero Three-o: Won by The Arbitrary, with a record of 156-99-1, good for a 61.13 winning percentage...and naming rights of the 2016 game. He went with...
2016 AO NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest - A Dab Free Zone: Won by YetAnotherCareerChanger, with a record of 162-94, good for a 63.28 winning percentage...and naming rights of the 2017 game. He went with...
YetAnother 2017 AO NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest - Now With Special Sauce: Won by Funemployed, with a record of 163-93, good for a 63.67 winning percentage...and naming rights of the 2018 game. He, of course, went with...
Way Too Early 2018 SpamLite NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest - w/25% Less Brown Losses
Now it's time to start it up again for the 2018 season.

The basic concept is to have a pick'em contest, where all the picks are made before the start of the season, as opposed to a regular week-by-week pick'em league. All of the bets are straight up wins and losses - nothing involving the spread or any of that.

Please note the AWARDS FOR EARLY ENTRANTS described below.

The second post of this thread will have the entire 2018 NFL schedule in it, week-by-week. All you need to do to enter is quote that post and let me know who you think will win each of the 2^8 games in the season. You can either delete the teams you think will lose from each matchup or retype (after the semicolon) the team you think will win. Whoever has the best predictions at the end of the season wins. After each week's games are over, I'll make a post showing everyone's weekly and year-to-date results.

ALTERNATIVE METHOD OF ENTRY: Download and complete the attached spreadsheet. Re-post it here or email it to me at actuary1695814 [at] gmail.

Here are some other details that you might find interesting:

OVERALL WINNER TIEBREAKER / The Early Bird Gets the Worm: In the case of an overall tie the winner will be whomever first submitted their picks.

In addition, there will be awards for the weekly winners. Whichever player(s) compile(s) the best record in a given week will be given a chance to improve their standing in the game. Be careful in using your awards though, it could come back to bite you if used the wrong way!

CHANGE ONE PICK plus NON-NEGATIVE AWARDS: When two or more players tie ALL players with the best record will receive the "Change One Future Pick" award. The earliest entrant will also receive a (usually) non-negative award as dictated by the schedule.

Award Deadlines: The "Change One Future Pick" awards may be held until the moment before the last week's kickoff, but, of course, must be declared before the kickoff of the game it affects. Whereas, the non-negative awards must be declared before kickoff of the next week.

Here's a full explanation of the awards (which are up for discussion & subject to change until the season starts )...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awards
Change one future pick: Pretty self-explanatory. Change one of your future picks. Use in any week. Declare before the kickoff of the game it affects. Claim before week 17.

You're Gonna' Like the Pick You Made...I Guarantee It: This will allow the winner of this award to guarantee one matchup from week 17 as a win.

Lovable Losers: This will allow the winner of this award to guarantee one win from any week for the team they picked to win the least. (If you picked a team to go 0-16 then you'll need to pick for the next least-winning team.)

Jables' Home Field Advantage: Jables said that home field is worth roughly 3 points in determining the gambling lines. Winning this award allows you (and only you) to add 3 points to the scores of all the road teams (that you chose to win) for a given week for your picks only. As a result, it could change some of your losses to ties or even wins for you. For those players who went extra heavy on the home teams, I will allow this award to be used to add 1 point to the scores of all the home teams instead (possibly changing a tie to a win, or a loss to a tie).

Random Poster's Lucky 7: If you win this award you will have seven points to distribute to improve the scores of your chosen teams. You may spread it among as many teams & weeks as you desire. Only whole-points may be used. (E.g., you chose team A to beat team B, team C to beat team D, team E to beat team F, and team G to beat team H. You added 3 points to team A and 2 points to team C and 1 point to team E and 1 point to team G. Team A loses 23-21, team C loses 23-20, team E loses 23-22, and team G wins 42-0. In your case team A would turn out to be a win, team C is still a loss, team E turns out to be a tie, and you wasted points on team G since it was a win regardless.)

Numbers' Nudge: This is an enhanced version of the RPL7 award. The winner of this award will have n points to distribute in the same way as the RPL7 award. n is determined by the number of wins correctly predicted in the week this award is won. The results of this award affect only the award winner's results.

Choose Your Own Adventure Award: If you win this award you get to choose one award from a selection of two non-negative awards and a higher-variance, possibly-negative award:
  • Jables' Home Field Advantage
  • Random Poster's Lucky 7
  • The Arbitrary Award: If you use this award you may flip your pick for all non-Divisional games for one team for the rest of the season.
Nice Little Lead You Got There...It Would Be A Shame If Something Were To [ahem] Happen To It: If you win this award you'll be able to insure that all of the teams you picked for the week you declare do not blow a seven or more point lead that they had at the end of the 3rd quarter.

AStudent's GroupThink: No thinking necessary - if you win this award, your record for Week 17 will be the better of Your Picks or that of the Consensus.

Last Week Winner: The winner of week 17 automatically has a week 17 loss turned into a win.

Perfect Weekly Record: If you should manage a perfect weekly record, you will receive DOUBLE the scheduled weekly award (this wouldn't apply to week 16 nor 17) and you'll get that week named after you in perpetuity.
This is the tentative schedule for weekly awards:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awards Schedule
Week 1: You're Gonna' Like the Pick You Made...I Guarantee It
Week 2: You're Gonna' Like the Pick You Made...I Guarantee It
The Arbitrary's Week 3: Lovable Losers
Week 4: Lovable Losers
Week 5: Jables' Home Field Advantage
Week 6: Jables' Home Field Advantage
Week 7: Choose Your Own Adventure Award
Week 8: Choose Your Own Adventure Award
Week 9: Choose Your Own Adventure Award
Week 10: Random Poster's Lucky 7
Week 11: Random Poster's Lucky 7
Week 12: Numbers' Nudge
Week 13: Numbers' Nudge
Week 14:
Nice Little Lead You Got There...It Would Be A Shame If Something Were To [ahem] Happen To It
Week 15: Nice Little Lead You Got There...It Would Be A Shame If Something Were To [ahem] Happen To It
Week 16: AStudent's GroupThink
Week 17: Last Week Winner
AWARDS FOR EARLY ENTRANTS:
Early entrants will receive a number of Change one future pick awards depending on how early your selections are made. The number of awards received will be based on a schedule:
Submit before [event, date & time] & receive n COFP awards.
Code:
Event                               Date & Time            n 
May 8 Tender deadline               05/08/2018 11:59 PM ET 4 
June 1 Tender deadline              06/01/2018 11:59 PM ET 3 
Franchise Player Multiyear deadline 07/16/2018 11:59 PM ET 2 
Hall of Fame Game                   08/02/2018 8:00 PM ET  1
After submitting your picks, if you want to make any changes to them you are free to do so. However, you must make a new post. If you edit your old post, I won't see it, and your change will not be recognized. Obviously, making a new post will result in a new time stamp on your entry, and opens you to ridicule and the Salt In Your Wounds award.

The season starts with Falcons @ Eagles at 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, September 6th, so I'll need all entries in by then. That gives you plenty of time to submit your predictions. However, I'll allow entries up until the start of the Sunday games on Sept 9th, but you'll be given a loss for the Falcons @ Eagles season-opening game.

What's in it for you besides AO-fame? The winner will receive a permanent seat in the AO NFL Full Season Pick 'Em Contest Hall of Fame & the naming rights for the "[ ] 2019 [ ] NFL Full Season Pick'em Contest [ ]".

Please keep in mind, mistakes are going to happen. When they do, we'll deal with them and move on. Your patience and understanding, especially with my intern (who is prone to the most egregious of errors), are necessary conditions of making this whole thing go. The participants of the AO NFL Full Season Pick'em Contests have always been known for their good sportsmanship, jovial banter, and above average looks. Let's continue that tradition.

Last edited by 1695814; 09-07-2018 at 04:04 PM..
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:48 AM
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Spoiler:
Week 1;Falcons@Eagles;
Week 1;Bills@Ravens;
Week 1;Jaguars@Giants;
Week 1;Buccaneers@Saints;
Week 1;Texans@Patriots;
Week 1;49ers@Vikings;
Week 1;Titans@Dolphins;
Week 1;Bengals@Colts;
Week 1;Steelers@Browns;
Week 1;Chiefs@Chargers;
Week 1;Seahawks@Broncos;
Week 1;Cowboys@Panthers;
Week 1;Redskins@Cardinals;
Week 1;Bears@Packers;
Week 1;Jets@Lions;
Week 1;Rams@Raiders;
Week 2;Ravens@Bengals;
Week 2;Panthers@Falcons;
Week 2;Colts@Redskins;
Week 2;Texans@Titans;
Week 2;Eagles@Buccaneers;
Week 2;Chiefs@Steelers;
Week 2;Dolphins@Jets;
Week 2;Chargers@Bills;
Week 2;Vikings@Packers;
Week 2;Browns@Saints;
Week 2;Lions@49ers;
Week 2;Cardinals@Rams;
Week 2;Patriots@Jaguars;
Week 2;Raiders@Broncos;
Week 2;Giants@Cowboys;
Week 2;Seahawks@Bears;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Jets@Browns;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Saints@Falcons;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Packers@Redskins;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Colts@Eagles;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Bills@Vikings;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Raiders@Dolphins;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Broncos@Ravens;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Bengals@Panthers;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Giants@Texans;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Titans@Jaguars;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;49ers@Chiefs;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Chargers@Rams;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Cowboys@Seahawks;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Bears@Cardinals;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Patriots@Lions;
The Arbitrary's Week 3;Steelers@Buccaneers;
Week 4;Vikings@Rams;
Week 4;Jets@Jaguars;
Week 4;Dolphins@Patriots;
Week 4;Eagles@Titans;
Week 4;Texans@Colts;
Week 4;Bills@Packers;
Week 4;Lions@Cowboys;
Week 4;Buccaneers@Bears;
Week 4;Bengals@Falcons;
Week 4;Seahawks@Cardinals;
Week 4;Browns@Raiders;
Week 4;Saints@Giants;
Week 4;49ers@Chargers;
Week 4;Ravens@Steelers;
Week 4;Chiefs@Broncos;
Week 5;Colts@Patriots;
Week 5;Titans@Bills;
Week 5;Falcons@Steelers;
Week 5;Broncos@Jets;
Week 5;Jaguars@Chiefs;
Week 5;Packers@Lions;
Week 5;Ravens@Browns;
Week 5;Giants@Panthers;
Week 5;Dolphins@Bengals;
Week 5;Raiders@Chargers;
Week 5;Cardinals@49ers;
Week 5;Vikings@Eagles;
Week 5;Rams@Seahawks;
Week 5;Cowboys@Texans;
Week 5;Redskins@Saints;
Week 6;Eagles@Giants;
Week 6;Buccaneers@Falcons;
Week 6;Panthers@Redskins;
Week 6 in London;Seahawks@Raiders;
Week 6;Colts@Jets;
Week 6;Cardinals@Vikings;
Week 6;Steelers@Bengals;
Week 6;Chargers@Browns;
Week 6;Bills@Texans;
Week 6;Bears@Dolphins;
Week 6;Rams@Broncos;
Week 6;Ravens@Titans;
Week 6;Jaguars@Cowboys;
Week 6;Chiefs@Patriots;
Week 6;49ers@Packers;
Week 7;Broncos@Cardinals;
Week 7 in London;Titans@Chargers;
Week 7;Bengals@Chiefs;
Week 7;Browns@Buccaneers;
Week 7;Panthers@Eagles;
Week 7;Vikings@Jets;
Week 7;Lions@Dolphins;
Week 7;Patriots@Bears;
Week 7;Bills@Colts;
Week 7;Texans@Jaguars;
Week 7;Saints@Ravens;
Week 7;Cowboys@Redskins;
Week 7;Rams@49ers;
Week 7;Giants@Falcons;
Week 8;Dolphins@Texans;
Week 8 in London;Eagles@Jaguars;
Week 8;Broncos@Chiefs;
Week 8;Browns@Steelers;
Week 8;Redskins@Giants;
Week 8;Seahawks@Lions;
Week 8;Buccaneers@Bengals;
Week 8;Jets@Bears;
Week 8;Ravens@Panthers;
Week 8;Colts@Raiders;
Week 8;49ers@Cardinals;
Week 8;Packers@Rams;
Week 8;Saints@Vikings;
Week 8;Patriots@Bills;
Week 9;Raiders@49ers;
Week 9;Bears@Bills;
Week 9;Buccaneers@Panthers;
Week 9;Chiefs@Browns;
Week 9;Jets@Dolphins;
Week 9;Steelers@Ravens;
Week 9;Lions@Vikings;
Week 9;Falcons@Redskins;
Week 9;Texans@Broncos;
Week 9;Chargers@Seahawks;
Week 9;Rams@Saints;
Week 9;Packers@Patriots;
Week 9;Titans@Cowboys;
Week 10;Panthers@Steelers;
Week 10;Saints@Bengals;
Week 10;Falcons@Browns;
Week 10;Dolphins@Packers;
Week 10;Jaguars@Colts;
Week 10;Lions@Bears;
Week 10;Cardinals@Chiefs;
Week 10;Patriots@Titans;
Week 10;Redskins@Buccaneers;
Week 10;Bills@Jets;
Week 10;Chargers@Raiders;
Week 10;Seahawks@Rams;
Week 10;Cowboys@Eagles;
Week 10;Giants@49ers;
Week 11;Packers@Seahawks;
Week 11;Bengals@Ravens;
Week 11;Vikings@Bears;
Week 11;Panthers@Lions;
Week 11;Titans@Colts;
Week 11;Cowboys@Falcons;
Week 11;Buccaneers@Giants;
Week 11;Eagles@Saints;
Week 11;Texans@Redskins;
Week 11;Broncos@Chargers;
Week 11;Raiders@Cardinals;
Week 11;Steelers@Jaguars;
Week 11 in Mexico;Chiefs@Rams;
Week 12;Bears@Lions;
Week 12;Redskins@Cowboys;
Week 12;Falcons@Saints;
Week 12;Browns@Bengals;
Week 12;Seahawks@Panthers;
Week 12;Jaguars@Bills;
Week 12;Raiders@Ravens;
Week 12;Dolphins@Colts;
Week 12;49ers@Buccaneers;
Week 12;Giants@Eagles;
Week 12;Patriots@Jets;
Week 12;Cardinals@Chargers;
Week 12;Steelers@Broncos;
Week 12;Packers@Vikings;
Week 12;Titans@Texans;
Week 13;Saints@Cowboys;
Week 13;Ravens@Falcons;
Week 13;Panthers@Buccaneers;
Week 13;Chargers@Steelers;
Week 13;Bears@Giants;
Week 13;Bills@Dolphins;
Week 13;Broncos@Bengals;
Week 13;Rams@Lions;
Week 13;Cardinals@Packers;
Week 13;Browns@Texans;
Week 13;Colts@Jaguars;
Week 13;Jets@Titans;
Week 13;Chiefs@Raiders;
Week 13;Vikings@Patriots;
Week 13;49ers@Seahawks;
Week 13;Redskins@Eagles;
Week 14;Jaguars@Titans;
Week 14;Jets@Bills;
Week 14;Giants@Redskins;
Week 14;Saints@Buccaneers;
Week 14;Patriots@Dolphins;
Week 14;Ravens@Chiefs;
Week 14;Colts@Texans;
Week 14;Rams@Bears;
Week 14;Panthers@Browns;
Week 14;Falcons@Packers;
Week 14;Broncos@49ers;
Week 14;Bengals@Chargers;
Week 14;Eagles@Cowboys;
Week 14;Lions@Cardinals;
Week 14;Steelers@Raiders;
Week 14;Vikings@Seahawks;
Week 15;Chargers@Chiefs;
Week 15;Browns@Broncos;
Week 15;Texans@Jets;
Week 15;Packers@Bears;
Week 15;Lions@Bills;
Week 15;Buccaneers@Ravens;
Week 15;Cardinals@Falcons;
Week 15;Raiders@Bengals;
Week 15;Titans@Giants;
Week 15;Dolphins@Vikings;
Week 15;Redskins@Jaguars;
Week 15;Cowboys@Colts;
Week 15;Seahawks@49ers;
Week 15;Patriots@Steelers;
Week 15;Eagles@Rams;
Week 15;Saints@Panthers;
Week 16;Giants@Colts;
Week 16;Texans@Eagles;
Week 16;Jaguars@Dolphins;
Week 16;Redskins@Titans;
Week 16;Packers@Jets;
Week 16;Bengals@Browns;
Week 16;Buccaneers@Cowboys;
Week 16;Vikings@Lions;
Week 16;Bills@Patriots;
Week 16;Falcons@Panthers;
Week 16;Ravens@Chargers;
Week 16;Bears@49ers;
Week 16;Rams@Cardinals;
Week 16;Steelers@Saints;
Week 16;Chiefs@Seahawks;
Week 16;Broncos@Raiders;
Week 17;Browns@Ravens;
Week 17;Dolphins@Bills;
Week 17;Eagles@Redskins;
Week 17;Colts@Titans;
Week 17;Lions@Packers;
Week 17;Jaguars@Texans;
Week 17;Raiders@Chiefs;
Week 17;Bears@Vikings;
Week 17;Jets@Patriots;
Week 17;Panthers@Saints;
Week 17;Cowboys@Giants;
Week 17;Bengals@Steelers;
Week 17;Falcons@Buccaneers;
Week 17;Chargers@Broncos;
Week 17;49ers@Rams;
Week 17;Cardinals@Seahawks;
Do you want to receive a weekly results pm?; Yes or No;
Which gender pronoun should I use to refer to you?; Male, Female, or Neutral;
Quote this post, leave the spoiler tags in place, and delete the superfluous information.

Delete everything in each row except for the team you think will win or enter the name of the team you think will win after the final semicolon in each row.

For best results, do not add/insert rows to your submission.

Also, please answer the two followup questions.

Alternatively, download and complete the attached spreadsheet. Re-post it to this thread or email it to me at actuary1695814 [at] gmail.
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx NFL Schedule 2018.xlsx (14.1 KB, 43 views)

Last edited by 1695814; 04-20-2018 at 01:03 AM..
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:49 AM
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Participation by Year:
2009: 20
2010: 23
2011: 31
2012: 19
2013: 32
2014: 34
2015: 27
2016: 24
2017: 33
2018: 27

Here are the players for this season:
Code:
Vorian Atreides
rekrap
Funemployed
Ultimate Anyone?
A695814
Kid Rock
The Arbitrary
Patience
twig93
bluecup129
ShundayBloodyShunday
jesusislord
Ezekial Cumberland
DownInTexas
ldancer911
Carrie’s Carebears
redearedslider 
Oliver Klozov
R Daneel Olivaw
trondogss
KS6392
Bingboing
Jahiegel
3rookie
statman4
A Student
ImPrettyDumb

Last edited by 1695814; 09-06-2018 at 09:44 PM..
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:49 AM
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Announcing Preseason Awards:

The Great Minds Think Alike award for the two most correlated entries goes to A695814 & redearedslider for an astounding 96.9% correlation.

The Opposites Attract award for the two least correlated entries goes to DownInTexas & redearedslider with a measly 46.1% correlation.

The Sheep award for the most correlated with the Consensus picks goes to redearedslider who had a correlation of 91.8%.

The Goat award for the least correlated with the Consensus picks goes to DownInTexas with a correlation of only 59.8%.

The Homer award for the player who chose the most home teams goes to Oliver Klozov (89.8%).

The Rough Road Ahead award for the player who chose the most away teams goes to DownInTexas (37.5%).

Congratulations to all of the preseason winners.

Last edited by 1695814; 09-09-2018 at 04:00 PM..
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:49 AM
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Here are the current members of the FSPHOF, welcome to our newest member, 2017 champion, Funemployed:
Code:
   player                  wins losses ties     % #
   Patience                1415    885    4 61.50 9
***The Arbitrary           1412    887    5 61.39 9
   Kid Rock                1410    890    4 61.28 9
   rekrap                  1376    925    3 59.79 9
  *Ezekial Cumberland      1244    801    3 60.82 8
  *trondogss               1216    829    3 59.45 8
  *Funemployed             1096    693    3 61.24 7
  *JUICE                    630    391    3 61.67 4
  *YetAnotherCareerChanger  611    412    1 59.72 4
  *sam10gle                 167     89    0 65.23 1

  # number of seasons played
  * season winner
*** three-time season winner
To qualify for the HOF a player must have either won a season or participated in all seasons. This implies, of course, that a player's membership will be revoked by failing to participate.

Last edited by 1695814; 09-09-2018 at 04:15 PM..
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:49 AM
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SURE THING™ Picks:
Code:
Wk 
1 Saints over Buccaneers
1 Lions over Jets
2 Rams over Cardinals
3 Eagles over Colts
3 Vikings over Bills
4 Jaguars over Jets
4 Patriots over Dolphins
4 Raiders over Browns
5 Saints over Redskins
8 Steelers over Browns
10 Eagles over Cowboys
13 Falcons over Ravens
14 Chargers over Bengals
15 Ravens over Buccaneers
15 Vikings over Dolphins
17 Vikings over Bears
Sure thing to win, # of times:
Code:
Vikings  3
Eagles   2
Saints   2
Chargers 1
Falcons  1
Jaguars  1
Lions    1
Patriots 1
Raiders  1
Rams     1
Ravens   1
Steelers 1
Sure thing to lose, # of times:
Code:

Browns     2
Buccaneers 2
Dolphins   2
Jets       2
Bears      1
Bengals    1
Bills      1
Cardinals  1
Colts      1
Cowboys    1
Ravens     1
Redskins   1
Congratulations to the Ravens for making it onto both lists.

Last edited by 1695814; 09-14-2018 at 02:17 PM..
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:49 AM
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RES110
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:49 AM
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Old 04-23-2018, 01:36 PM
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IN!

I will likely do a few additional entries (for kicks and giggles), but will do so at a later time.

I'll delineate my entries either through an alt or simply use the month of submission to distinguish my entries...
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx NFL Schedule 2018_04.xlsx (18.1 KB, 22 views)
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Old 04-23-2018, 02:53 PM
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Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 35,187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vorian Atreides View Post
IN!
Excellent. Once I get it processed through the system I'll post the welcome message.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vorian Atreides View Post
I will likely do a few additional entries (for kicks and giggles), but will do so at a later time.

I'll delineate my entries either through an alt or simply use the month of submission to distinguish my entries...
Use an alt...it's best for historical records.

Last edited by 1695814; 04-23-2018 at 02:58 PM..
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