Just another hand...

[Drzy]

First hand of a $15 + 1 at Stars... I had a tough time figuring out what I should do, although I think most of you will consider this an easy play. Not sure if I had odds or not... I'd definitely welcome any advice/critiquing.

Dealt [Ad, 8c] UTG+3. Folds to me, I raise to 60. UTG+4 calls, all others fold. Pot size = 150

Flop [Qd, 8d, 4d]
I lead with a bet of 150. UTG+4 thinks a few seconds and calls. Pot size = 450

Turn [Qd, 8d, 4d, 2s]
I lead with a bet a 400. He requests time, but not long after, goes all-in...

I think, request time, it gets down to 10 or seconds, and I, with middle pair top kicker and nut flush draw, .................. ?

[Spidurman]

I'd have slowed down on the turn, and probably folded to the all in vs my smaller bet. Marginal value of the chips gained by winning all in isn't worth the likelihood of being behind.

You're good enough to outplay em later, just gotta get a spot

[apoc]

Your hand is good enough to push all in with but not call an all in bet with in this spot. Assuming he has a medicore hand of KQ and no flush draw you are only 30% to make a hand on the river. which happens to be your exact pot odds. The problem is that if he holds anything better than that you are way behind. Even if he has the K high club draw you are losing another 2.5% chance of making your hand.

If you could be confident that all your outs are clean (A, 8, diamonds of course) it would be an EV call of 0. If any of your outs are not not clean or he has a diamond (or 2) it is a negative EV call.

I am always weary of someone who requests time, and then pushes AI, or moves for a raise.

It smells bad, to me, like a made flush, or a set.

[Drzy]

Thank you guys for the excellent advice, as you always give.

I did fold... I just couldn't justify calling with middle pair and (hopefully) 9 flush outs, especially after I bet strong twice and he has to think I'm a likely all-in caller. Unfortunately, he didn't show (and he of course shouldn't).

I wish I could say I folded because of the pot odds calculation... so far I've been relegated to "eyeballing" it and coming up with the estimated numbers. I should work on my arithmetic.

[Drzy]

Here's a common situation. You fire a raise before the flop, get called by someone in a better position, and make your hand on the flop. ......what next? This hand history below has been slightly altered to make the blinds smaller, but it's based on a real hand (for the real hand, BB was 150, big enough to make it a fairly easy all-in IMO).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is 50 (5 handed)

Is guhn RAIN (3045)
Button (2495)
SB (2170)
BB (3325)
UTG (2465)

Preflop: Is guhn RAIN is MP with Qc, As.
UTG folds, Is guhn RAIN raises to 150, Button calls 150, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (375) Ad, 8d, 9h (2 players)

.... there's a flush draw, but I'm not really worried about it. A little concerned though. I'm sure I'd bet the pot. What if he raises? Do I reraise and base my decision from there? That's what I would do probably. But how about you, any opinions? Or is this hand good enough to check-raise? So many options, and they all seem good...

[Spidurman]

well the good hands (lets assume he's a decent player, and wouldn't call with Kxd)

Any pair other than 88 or 99. AJ, AT.

What's the bad hands: JT suited, AK, A8, A9, weird low diamond connectors.

Stacks are both deep and healthy relative to other stacks and the blinds, so desperation plays are out.

I would bet strong (375 is pot) so anywhere from 300-400. If raised.....tuck and run like hell. The 'good' hands aren't raisable there, the bad are.