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#1
05-02-2005, 08:01 PM
 Sox34 Member Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,147
last survivor status - curtate

T(x) and T(y) are independent. you are also given the following info:

k q_x+k q_y+k
0 .08 .1
1 .09 .15
2 .1 .2

Determine the probability that the curtate future lifetime of (xy_last surv) equals 1

a) Less than .03
b) .03 - .0305
c) .0305 - .031
d) .031 - .0315
e) at least .0315

I think my formula is incorrect for last survivor curtate functions...
#2
05-02-2005, 08:34 PM
 soyleche Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 9,915

Do you know what the answer is?
#3
05-02-2005, 08:36 PM
 Sox34 Member Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,147

B
#4
05-02-2005, 08:38 PM
 Brutè Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: The 'shoe Posts: 2,330

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sox34 I think my formula is incorrect for last survivor curtate functions...
what formula are you using?
#5
05-02-2005, 08:39 PM
 JJ_Franch Member SOA Join Date: May 2004 Location: One Flat Place Studying for No More Exams Favorite beer: Grolsch Posts: 1,211

The answer is 0.030258. Sox, I don't know what formula you have but think logically: The Prob (of x to die in 1 and y die in 0) + Prob (of y to die in 1 and x in 0) + Prob (of both die in time 1).
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Everyone deserves a bit of luck!
#6
05-02-2005, 08:43 PM
 Brutè Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: The 'shoe Posts: 2,330

JJ beat me to it!
#7
05-02-2005, 08:48 PM
 Sox34 Member Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,147

thanks - I was using the formula for JSS -forgetting that it was not the formula for LSS and was so stuck on why it wasn't working that I didn't think it through. I guess that's a lesson in not blindly trying to apply formulas!

Thanks for the help all
#8
05-02-2005, 08:53 PM
 JJ_Franch Member SOA Join Date: May 2004 Location: One Flat Place Studying for No More Exams Favorite beer: Grolsch Posts: 1,211

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sox34 thanks - I was using the formula for JSS -forgetting that it was not the formula for LSS and was so stuck on why it wasn't working that I didn't think it through. I guess that's a lesson in not blindly trying to apply formulas! Thanks for the help all
Another lesson, this one is a lot harder to implement, is to think in several dimensions. Think outside of the box. People with that ability have no problems with 3/M. I'm just getting there myself. It is quite inlightening.
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Everyone deserves a bit of luck!
#9
05-02-2005, 08:58 PM
 Brutè Member Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: The 'shoe Posts: 2,330

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JJ_Franch Another lesson, this one is a lot harder to implement, is to think in several dimensions. Think outside of the box. People with that ability have no problems with 3/M. I'm just getting there myself. It is quite inlightening.
How did you get there? You seem to have an excellent grasp of everything. I've been studying this crap for years and still feel like I'll be borderline again.
#10
05-02-2005, 09:04 PM
 JJ_Franch Member SOA Join Date: May 2004 Location: One Flat Place Studying for No More Exams Favorite beer: Grolsch Posts: 1,211

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Brutè How did you get there? You seem to have an excellent grasp of everything. I've been studying this crap for years and still feel like I'll be borderline again.
Course 4. I don't know what happened. All of a sudden, I have better understanding of probabilities and I don't think one dimensional. Could be also that the success encouraged me. I was getting down on myself.
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