to gambool or not, $215 MTT @ Stars

[Bama Gambler]

sirio11 is very tricky. Do you gamble here?

PokerStars Game #3369833893: Tournament #15976800, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2005/12/18 - 17:29:16 (ET)
Table '15976800 213' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: GODFATHER 72 (2375 in chips)
Seat 2: spudstew (1970 in chips)
Seat 3: suckoutpro (2240 in chips)
Seat 4: sirio11 (2985 in chips)
Seat 5: eh ces over (8680 in chips)
Seat 6: ronaldjeremy (2055 in chips)
Seat 7: yea so (5600 in chips)
Seat 8: Bama Gambler (4060 in chips)
Seat 9: KillerKop (10355 in chips)
yea so: posts small blind 50
Bama Gambler: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bama Gambler [8s As]
KillerKop: folds
GODFATHER 72: folds
spudstew: folds
suckoutpro: folds
sirio11: raises 200 to 300
eh ces over: folds
ronaldjeremy: folds
yea so: calls 250
Bama Gambler: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [2s Ac 6c]
yea so: checks
Bama Gambler: checks
sirio11: checks
*** TURN *** [2s Ac 6c] [7s]
yea so: bets 400
Bama Gambler: calls 400
sirio11: raises 2285 to 2685 and is all-in
yea so: folds
Bama Gambler: ???

[hardinda]

Sirio is tricky and also he's very good and i don't see him bluffing much early. Don't think he really needs to...

[win diesel]

Tough hand, actually lurking right as it was going on...

You are getting almost exactly 3 to 1.

If he has a made hand, you have 12 outs at best, 7 at worst. There is a chance he is semibluffing here. Maybe with a 12 card draw, a gutshot that picked up a flush draw.

But I have actually played against him several times. He gets frustrated easily and plays somewhat reckless when he thinks he is shortstacked IMO.
Good chance of him semibluffing here. (By good, I mean around 20%)

So all in all, I think a call is about as close as you can get to being neutral EV wise.

I'd probably lay it, but you can beat yourself up either way.

[win diesel]

But Bama, since the field is so heavily laden with stooges who have gotten in with satellites...think you should have laid this down and looked for another oportunity.

[Bama Gambler]

I just thought there was a decent chance he didn't even have an ace. Most players with an ace won't give a free card on that flop HU, much less in a 3-way pot against the blinds. Given I had at least 8 outs (if he has two spades then I have to be ahead, if he has Ax where x>8 and a spade then I have 8 outs) and there is a decent chance he doesn't he have an ace plus this is a 6k pot. I think I have to gamble here. I called and he AJo. River was a blank.

[Bama Gambler]

Originally Posted by win diesel

But Bama, since the field is so heavily laden with stooges who have gotten in with satellites...think you should have laid this down and looked for another oportunity.

I didn't know this guy was a good player, I knew he was tricky from playing with him today, but I'd never seen him before.

[Arachn]

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=20287