More on Gold

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Originally Posted by FormLetter

After 3954 votes, it is:
63% yes
31% no
7% unsure

Wow, it's up to 66% now with 7,131 votes. People just love gold.

[ElDucky]

Sell gold! I think $1,500 is on it's way, with some chance we simply blow through $1,900 instead. Though, I also think $2,500 will be on it's way after $1,500 is reached.

I did see one analysis from an Eliott Wave group about why $500 gold was on its way in a few years. Seems unlikely to me, but that's what makes markets.

[Fish Actuary]

Originally Posted by ElDucky

I did see one analysis from an Eliott Wave group about why $500 gold was on its way in a few years. Seems unlikely to me, but that's what makes markets.

Sorry to hijack the thread briefly...

Is there anything to back-up Eliott Waves as being useful tools for prediction? It seems like they are trying to predict the future based on past performance with no mechanism to justify why it should happen.

I could see Eliott Waves being useful for predicting prices of things that are potentially strongly affect by climate (e.g. crops, commodities needed for building) where there are several major long term climate cycles that we know of, but for gold where politics, policy and long term scarcity get involved, not so much.

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Originally Posted by Fish Actuary

Sorry to hijack the thread briefly...

Is there anything to back-up Eliott Waves as being useful tools for prediction? It seems like they are trying to predict the future based on past performance with no mechanism to justify why it should happen.

I could see Eliott Waves being useful for predicting prices of things that are potentially strongly affect by climate (e.g. crops, commodities needed for building) where there are several major long term climate cycles that we know of, but for gold where politics, policy and long term scarcity get involved, not so much.

Mish used to do the occasional Elliott Wave stock market post in his blog but he seems to have gotten away from it. It seems really hokey. You can always look back at the ups and downs and say yeah that was an A wave up and that was a B wave down (or whatever terminology) but it never means anything prospectively.

[ElDucky]

Originally Posted by Fish Actuary

Sorry to hijack the thread briefly...

Is there anything to back-up Eliott Waves as being useful tools for prediction? It seems like they are trying to predict the future based on past performance with no mechanism to justify why it should happen.

I could see Eliott Waves being useful for predicting prices of things that are potentially strongly affect by climate (e.g. crops, commodities needed for building) where there are several major long term climate cycles that we know of, but for gold where politics, policy and long term scarcity get involved, not so much.

No underlying reasons for it. Just a pattern someone noticed on past prices which is projected into the future. Of course with enough people following it, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, but not that many people use it.

The underlying reason I can think of is that gold is not a store of value at this level. It is now a only a bet on even more shit to come (which seems likely, but not inevitable). The price of gold is now very volatile and at this high level is risky.

[Baron Von Raschke]

Have the guys at Elliott Wave ever been right?

[Aaron Brachowitz]

Anyone buying mining stocks? I've heard they have underperformed gold by quite a bit. There's an ETF (GDX) that covers quite a few of the big names -- Barrick, Goldcorp, Newmont, Kinross, Anglogold Ashanti, and several others. I couldn't find much else other than buying the individual stocks.

[fargo]

Originally Posted by Baron Von Raschke

Have the guys at Elliott Wave ever been right?

The beauty of Elliot Wave is that you never have to admit you're wrong. If the trade goes against you, you can just say that the pattern is actually a "3 of 5 in a C" and not a "D". I knew guys who made a killing on it, then got absolutely destroyed. Elliot Wave is one of those things that "works until it doesn't."

[A Student]

Originally Posted by Aaron Brachowitz

Anyone buying mining stocks? I've heard they have underperformed gold by quite a bit. There's an ETF (GDX) that covers quite a few of the big names -- Barrick, Goldcorp, Newmont, Kinross, Anglogold Ashanti, and several others. I couldn't find much else other than buying the individual stocks.

I'm short puts on NEM. Yes, the miners have trailed gold itself. I'm not sure how much they hedge the prices of gold though, if they hedge far enough in the future they may not be realizing the current prices of gold.

[Fish Actuary]

Originally Posted by Aaron Brachowitz

Anyone buying mining stocks? I've heard they have underperformed gold by quite a bit. There's an ETF (GDX) that covers quite a few of the big names -- Barrick, Goldcorp, Newmont, Kinross, Anglogold Ashanti, and several others. I couldn't find much else other than buying the individual stocks.

I've bought Avalon Rare Metals. Unfortunately, I've taken a beating since I bought it, but it's more of a long term bet on rare earth metals being scarce and China hording them. The mine isn't in production yet...