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CATASTROPHE MODELING JOBS

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Old 04-17-2006, 02:18 PM
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Default Poisson YIKES!

I thought i liked Life Contingencies better than Loss models ,when i began Loss models. Once i got a hang of it, i felt it wasnt that bad after all. I just began Stochastic this morning and I hate Poisson processes already. And i am talking about Homogeneous Poisson processes. I am really really not understanding.
I mean , i can figure out the inter-arrival times, waiting times, Stationary independant increments, but why am i not able to solve a single problem?
How about i leave out Stoch & Markov & focus the precious time on Loss, Life, Aggreg & Freq. distn? i have been panicking since morning. At this rate, i will forget what i know as well. Maybe i am not good for this sitting.
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Old 04-17-2006, 02:21 PM
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Probably see if you can do the easy type of these problems so that if there is one or two you can snag them. Or take one problem and play around with it during slow times (like visits to your in-laws). Once you get it, the rest will fall more easily.

Ironically, sometimes the problems on harder concepts are easier than those based on elementary concepts. Often here is only one way to set up and do them.
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Old 04-17-2006, 02:25 PM
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I don't know what it is about poission process....

I remember when I sat for 3 the first time I just didn't understand what the heck it was. I understood it the second time I sat and pass much better. The concept really isn't difficult just do lots of problems to try to understand it.

They're sure to ask a few on the poisson process so I wouldn't eliminate it.

Markov is easier btw if you haven't done it yet.
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Old 04-17-2006, 02:36 PM
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Why don't you post a problem you're having a hard time with including some of the approaches you took. Maybe your error was more minor than you thought.
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