Facing Push After Flop With mid pair and Nut Flush Draw

[drakestudent]

Seat 1: andrey999 (10748)
Seat 2: pwkasper111 (2874)
Seat 3: WorldPeace5 (3990)
Seat 4: mcphillipsjr (10572)
Seat 5: bokerpux (5705)
Seat 6: soccerguyrya (5627)
Seat 7: shawnsgirl26 (3273)
Seat 8: fu_jpg (10344)
Seat 9: AshleyBrett (4288)
Seat 10: Slickwill122 (12054)
mcphillipsjr posts small blind (100)
bokerpux posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to soccerguyrya [ Js, As ]
soccerguyrya raises (600) to 600
shawnsgirl26 folds.
fu_jpg folds.
AshleyBrett folds.
Slickwill122 folds.
andrey999 folds.
pwkasper111 calls (600)
WorldPeace5 folds.
mcphillipsjr calls (500)
bokerpux folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9s, Qs, Jd ]
mcphillipsjr bets (9972)
mcphillipsjr is all-In.


Do you call? What do you put McPhillips on? (FYI, This is about an hour into a $1 tournament)

[tommie frazier]

call 5000 to win 6400. so you need to win 12.5/28 times or so, right?

you have 9 flush outs, and 2 J (of he has no QQ) and 3 A if he isn't holding AQ.

I'd call it and hope for the best.

I stink at this game though.

I put him on KT. I suck at this, but it's a $1 tourney so he probably does too.

[Judge Dredd]

HE could have anything, and a push like that either means a really strong hand or a really strong draw....leaning toward the latter IMHO.

If you are up against a straight or set, I do not think you have the odds here (didn't check), but otherwise you are probably the favorite, and coinflip at worst.

Its early, you can fold and still have 25 BBs, but if you are looking for a spot to accumulate (and at this point in the MTT, thats not so bad), I say go for it.

In other words, I don't think folding is wrong. I don't think calling is wrong.

[tommie frazier]

judge captured it better than me.

[Chubbs_23]

Fold. If he flipped over his cards, and showed me Q3, still fold.
People in these multis are dying to give you their chips as a 70/30 dog, why put your hard earned stack at risk for so much less?

[Y2Mozz]

What you're most likely up against:

QTo

Someone run that in twodimes, please, we be blocked :9

[Rhizome]

I call this most of the time. He usually has a Ten. I recently had similar hand and the opponent had TT. I called and he hit the straight.

[Sotally Tober]

Originally Posted by Y2Mozz

What you're most likely up against:

QTo

Someone run that in twodimes, please, we be blocked :9

Worst case for drake, if villain has QTo.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1760146
pokenum -h as js - qd ts -- 9s qs jd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qs 9s Jd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js 463 46.77 518 52.32 9 0.91 0.472
Ts Qd 518 52.32 463 46.77 9 0.91 0.528

[Y2Mozz]

Oh wow. Call that ish.