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CATASTROPHE MODELING JOBS

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#1
07-06-2006, 02:45 PM
 Y2Mozz Member CAS Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: NJ Favorite beer: Sam Adams Summer Ale, Yuengling, Magic Hat #9, Dogfish 90 IPA, Samuel Smith IPA Posts: 3,829
LP Reform Caucus

http://reformthelp.org/

The LP is currently quite extreme.. These guys seem to be on the right track to tempering the platform and bringing in voters.

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#2
07-06-2006, 02:47 PM
 Griffin Member Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: "Clown college"? You can't eat that. Favorite beer: Skittle Bräu Posts: 3,171

Shouldn't there be a complaint in there about "why won't the mainstream media give us any attention?"
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Please rise for the Griffin theme song.
#3
07-06-2006, 05:35 PM
 true progressive Member Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Wherever I can find a place to lay my head Posts: 737

Their "founding fathers" don't seem very bright. The flaw in the following essay is pretty huge...

(hint: the level of freedom is bound between 0 and 100%)

Quote:
 Incremental Freedom by S Michael Moore Posted May 6, 2005 Virtually any person with a basic understanding of money is familiar with the term "compounded interest." They may not know exactly how it works, but they understand that it is a good thing and helps their money grow. Without trying to get too overtly technical, let's take a look at this in equation form. In order to keep it as simple as possible, we will assume a compounding frequency of 1 year. We also need to first define the variables of the equation: P is the principal r is the rate of return (expressed as a decimal) n is the number of years of the investment FV is the future value of the investment OK, now that we know that, let's look at the equation: FV = P(1 + r)n Now let's bring it home by throwing in some numbers. We'll go with \$10,000 invested at 7% for 30 years: FV = 10,000(1 + .07)30 = \$76,122.55 This is simple enough right. Now let's look at it with an annual addition, that is, we make a yearly addition to our principal amount in addition to the interest gain. In order to do this, we need to add an additional variable: c is the amount of the yearly contribution Now bear with me here because this equation is somewhat more complicated so we are going to use a little math trick called "summing a geometric series," to keep it as simple as possible: FV = P(1 + r)n + c[((1 + r)n + 1 - (1 + r))/r] Now, let's take that same \$10,000 invested at 7% for 30 years and make a yearly addition of \$1000: FV = 10,000(1 + .07)30 + 1000[((1 + .07)30+1 - (1 + .07))/.07] = \$177,195.60 Assuming I made no math errors, that is quite a nice increase over the one time investment. By now, you are probably wondering what all that has to do with incremental freedom (the topic of this post). It has everything to do with it. Let's rewrite the variables in terms of freedom: CF is the current amount of freedom we have d is the increased desire for more freedom once some freedom has been tasted n is the number of years of the investment in incremental freedom FF is the future amount of freedom we will have i is the amount of freedom added each year through incremental steps So now we have the equation for what every libertarian wants, future freedom: FF = CF(1 + d)n + i[((1 + d)n + 1 - (1 + d))/d] I point this out because, just as everyone knows that the way to make real money through savings is to combine the effects of periodic savings with the effects of compounded interest, libertarians should know that to obtain freedom you must add to it a little each year and build it up with the increased desire for freedom that will come as the veil of a century or more of creeping statism is lifted. This makes sense from a economic standpoint, right? You work hard, save your money in an interest bearing account and it grows. Why should we look at freedom any differently? Unfortunately, too many libertarians (including the LP) want to take a different approach. They sit around like a poor family living in a Louisiana trailer park waiting to hit the Power Ball. They make extravagant plans about what they will do with this freedom jackpot, tell everyone how great it will be and quickly let their friends know that they are stupid if they don't buy tickets too. Of course, their numbers never seem to hit. But nothing changes. Instead of working hard and saving, they keep buying Lotto tickets and complaining the government isn't giving them enough handouts. Likewise, the libertarians refuse to see that the incremental way is the only one that will work. The government is not going to give us more handouts in the form of increased freedom. There will be no Freedom Ball jackpot headed our way. Those that wish to increase government control over our lives figured this out a long time ago. They have been working for decades to increase the power of government, slowly doing so bit by bit, year after year. They knew that to do it all at once would only lead to a violent uprising against them. People, like animals, do not just become domesticated over night. It takes time to accustom them to their new masters and to give up their wild ways. Conversely, people domesticated by government handouts are not just going to give them up to go live in a free market. They have to be weaned just like a domesticated animal being returned to the wild. People need to be taught the tools necessary for them to survive on their own in a free market. They need to learn critical thinking and self-reliance. It takes time to learn these skills otherwise, when they are suddenly freed but cannot take care of themselves, they move back towards what they have always known. Take a look at Russia; it is happening there as I type this. Even though they tasted the sweetness of freedom, their inability to thrive in it is causing them to allow Putin to move them back towards the comforts of government control they have always known. There will come a time, however, that those born in freedom will violently fight to keep it. Much blood will be shed. I don't want this for the US. I want our move to freedom to be everlasting. That is why I want to move in increments towards freedom rather than waiting for the collapse or violent uprise that will eventually come from our continuance on the current path.
#4
07-06-2006, 05:39 PM
 E. Blackadder Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Not far from US 1. Favorite beer: Beer?! Blech. But Dad likes Dortmunder Union. Posts: 20,837 Blog Entries: 1

I'm 125% free.

Do you ever get the feeling that life would be better if one had to be able to solve a quadratic equation before voting, being elected, or writing a column?
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If once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing; and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination. Once begun upon this downward path, you never know where you are to stop. Many a man has dated his ruin from some murder or other that perhaps he thought little of
at the time.
#5
07-06-2006, 05:46 PM
 true progressive Member Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Wherever I can find a place to lay my head Posts: 737

Quote:
 Do you ever get the feeling that life would be better if one had to be able to solve a quadratic equation before voting, being elected, or writing a column?
Yes.
#6
07-06-2006, 05:57 PM
 _BullDog_ Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Favorite beer: Samuel Smith Oatmeal Stout Posts: 22,449

Is like like giving it 110%?
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God is Great - Beer is good - People are crazybulldogbrute.mybrute.c
#7
07-07-2006, 06:58 AM
 Griffin Member Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: "Clown college"? You can't eat that. Favorite beer: Skittle Bräu Posts: 3,171

Quote:
 Originally Posted by E. Blackadder I'm 125% free.
At a health fair my company hosted last year, one of the local gyms was giving out some kind of power-energy bar that said "125% less fat than other bars" on the wrapper. So I ate 10 or 20 of them, didn't lose any weight, but did feel a little nauseous.
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Please rise for the Griffin theme song.
#8
07-07-2006, 07:59 AM
 IAm@Work.com Member CAS Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: @Work Posts: 4,330

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Griffin At a health fair my company hosted last year, one of the local gyms was giving out some kind of power-energy bar that said "125% less fat than other bars" on the wrapper. So I ate 10 or 20 of them, didn't lose any weight, but did feel a little nauseous.
Silly. It doesn't work that way. It's like rates. If you lowered them 50% last year, you need to raise them 50% this year to make up the shortfall. At least that's what the marketing people tell me.
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by glenn Who let the guy with the apple in?
#9
07-17-2006, 01:48 PM
 hardinda Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: some \$0 SNG Favorite beer: Yes Posts: 14,234

So the LP party just made many changes to the platform (sorry just really looking at it for the first time)? Maybe this party is taking a step in the right direction.
#10
07-17-2006, 02:01 PM
 Ronald Reagan Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: "We will get only what we know how to take" Posts: 8,705

Quote:
 Originally Posted by E. Blackadder ... Do you ever get the feeling that life would be better if one had to be able to solve a quadratic equation before voting, being elected, or writing a column?
No, but I think vote by mail is good. Like a take home test! At least people could do a little surfing about the lower level candidates before picking one they know nothing about. More informed choices.
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"While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world’s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greater access there, progress continues to be slow."- Dick Cheney, 1999

"Even more significant than the numbers is the perception of risk among workers..."- Harvard law professor Paul Weiler

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