I think it could go one of two ways and that’s assuming that the candidate pool systematically underperformed (ex. a large number of candidates didn’t finish). Either they lower the MQC as they presumably did for Exam 8 in 2018 or they leave it as is and have a lower pass rate as they did for Exam 5 last year (29% I believe).
There’s another key variable to consider as well which no one can really answer. That is, how did COVID impact preparations? Were most candidates unaffected and able to study twice as much, were twice and prepared and overperformed, were some candidates heavily impacted and as a result, underperformed or something in between?
I’m inclined to believe most candidates were unaffected given how much younger the candidate pool is nowadays (less likely to be married, have kids and other forms of additional dependencies and stress etc.)
Only time will tell.