Anyone notice that exams in which students get instant results have seen spikes in pass rates while exams that are hand graded have seen either little change or decrease in pass rates?
It’s because of two things:
1) The ability to get a refund 14-days before a test due to COVID allows for anti-selection which leads to the test taking pool being of higher quality and thus better scores.
2) Pass rates are set ahead of time for instant result tests and determined after the fact for hand graded and its always been suspected that they adjust the pass rate to keep the % of passers steady.
Put those two together and you are getting quality test takers passing at higher rates for the instant result tests. But people who would normally pass the hand graded tests are getting a 4 or 5 because the average candidate is higher quality thus driving up the overall score and the SOA is adjusting the pass rate accordingly.