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sorry, I think your choice has some problems.
annual frequency=0.4 and you may make a straightforward transformation. so the daily frequency lamda=0.4/365.
and you can calculate it. given any day, the frequency of no claim is exp(-0.4/365).
and it’s just a binomial distribution, if you want to see some claims at the second half.
at the upper half year, there is a 182 days and making a simplified assumtion that there is no more one claim at any day.
it’s a combinatorial calculation. From 182 days, you chose 39 day that reported a claim and there are 143 no claim days.
the combinatorial part is infinity.
From my view, the exam tries to mimic a simplified condition. It provides all necessary information and want to know how do you handle it.
Ratemaking&Reserve estimate. Former gives past related data and you need to price it based on the given data. You need to make too many adjustments before calculating the rate. The most important thing is that you must give a reason about why you make these adjustments. The reserve part also require you justify you chosen reserve estimate.
This is first and I passed. I tried the GOAL, Mahler’s study aids and Mahler’s practice exams. It should be cognized Mahler’s aid was hard to the most of candidates. It has 5000+ pages. Indeed, I had read it but I don’t think it’s necessary.
I think you should focus on the question of aids. It includes some fixed type of questions. The part of stochastic model was relatively certain question type. I suggest the GOAL. It can help you establish a conditional reaction. When you see some keywords and you will react how to calculate.
